--- title: "Team CT case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Team CT ($43.90) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 17 items with odds, observed 59.18% over 63 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Team CT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Team CT A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct?window=all) Price · $43.90 · 62.72 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $39.92 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 59.18% · 63 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 53 openings · below min 30 days · 63 openings · below min since tracking started · 63 openings · below min -0.5% 117.8% 236.0% **Small sample.** 63 openings and 7.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct?window=24h) | 4 | 26.85% ±208.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct?window=7d) | 53 | 61.91% ±58.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct) | 63 | 59.18% ±53.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/team-ct?window=all) | 63 | 59.18% ±53.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 63 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,455 10,650 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 16,129 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,002 1,432 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $856 1,223 coins | 15.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $179 256 coins | 9.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $152 217 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $94.50 135 coins | 12.0% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $59.89 85.56 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $40.87 58.38 coins | 8.2% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.39× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 12.0% | $29.03 41.47 coins | 8.7% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.06× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $28.27 40.38 coins | 5.7% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.79× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $11.00 15.71 coins | 6.9% | 23 | 15.8 | 1.46× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 13.0% | $6.40 9.14 coins | 2.1% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 15.0% | $3.94 5.63 coins | 1.5% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=team-ct) [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $43.90 62.72 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $43.90 62.72 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC [AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.90 62.72 coins $28.27 40.38 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $43.90 62.72 coins $11.00 15.71 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) Hidden $43.90 62.72 coins $29.03 41.47 coins 0.66x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) Hidden $43.90 62.72 coins $11.00 15.71 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) Hidden $43.90 62.72 coins $11.00 15.71 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) [Jabs GG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jabs%20GG) $43.90 62.72 coins $94.50 135 coins 2.15x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $43.64 62.34 coins $4.34 6.2 coins 0.10x 2026-11-08 17:05 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) Hidden $43.64 62.34 coins $11.07 15.82 coins 0.25x 2026-11-08 17:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $43.90 | 90.92% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $43.50 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.62 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.9% contraband 0.0% classified 61.1% mil spec 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt