---
title: "Tetanus case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tetanus ($27.01) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 15 items with odds, observed 91.03% over 927 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Tetanus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Tetanus

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus?window=all)

Price · $27.01 · 38.58 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $24.55 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.03% · 927 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.02% ±26.02 121 openings

7 days · 87.58% ±11.18 668 openings

30 days · 91.03% ±9.50 927 openings

since tracking started · 91.03% ±9.50 927 openings

51.5% 78.0% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus?window=24h) | 121 | 78.02% ±26.0 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus?window=7d) | 668 | 87.58% ±11.2 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus) | 927 | 91.03% ±9.50 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tetanus?window=all) | 927 | 91.03% ±9.50 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 927 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $616 880 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $221 315 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $190 271 coins | 5.0% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.66× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $132 189 coins | 2.6% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.57× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $130 185 coins | 5.3% | 6 | 9.3 | 0.65× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $110 157 coins | 13.4% | 26 | 27.8 | 0.93× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $97.30 139 coins | 9.9% | 22 | 23.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $95.90 137 coins | 11.7% | 39 | 27.8 | 1.40× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $79.80 114 coins | 9.8% | 30 | 27.8 | 1.08× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $65.64 93.77 coins | 10.0% | 35 | 34.8 | 1.01× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $65.25 93.21 coins | 9.3% | 30 | 32.4 | 0.92× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $62.78 89.68 coins | 10.2% | 29 | 37.1 | 0.78× |
| [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $6.76 9.65 coins | 6.9% | 208 | 231.8 | 0.90× |
| [Nova \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $2.59 3.7 coins | 2.6% | 252 | 231.8 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.81 2.59 coins | 1.8% | 238 | 231.8 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $27.21 38.87 coins $640 914 coins 23.51x 2026-11-03 20:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=tetanus)

[Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $2.59 3.7 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $2.59 3.7 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $2.59 3.7 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC

[Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $27.01 38.58 coins $6.76 9.65 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $65.64 93.77 coins 2.43x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $65.64 93.77 coins 2.43x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $2.59 3.7 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $2.59 3.7 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $2.59 3.7 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC

[Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.01 38.58 coins $6.76 9.65 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $27.01 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.15 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.21 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 16.2% epic 1.1% rare 7.8% industrial 50.0% Uncommon 25.0% best hit $640 (23.51x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt