--- title: "The Backup case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Backup ($32.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 8 items with odds, observed 93.58% over 375 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Backup](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Backup A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup?window=all) Price · $32.28 · 46.11 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $29.34 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.58% · 375 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 96.81% ±11.17 342 openings 30 days · 93.58% ±10.67 375 openings since tracking started · 93.58% ±10.67 375 openings 45.0% 78.3% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup?window=24h) | 40 | 78.39% ±32.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup?window=7d) | 342 | 96.81% ±11.2 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup) | 375 | 93.58% ±10.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-backup?window=all) | 375 | 93.58% ±10.7 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 375 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $164 234 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $107 153 coins | 7.3% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $87.50 125 coins | 3.0% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $77.00 110 coins | 10.5% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 18.8% | $65.46 93.51 coins | 41.9% | 73 | 70.5 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 10.0% | $63.80 91.14 coins | 21.7% | 37 | 37.5 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $62.49 89.27 coins | 10.6% | 22 | 18.8 | 1.17× | | [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 59.0% | $1.88 2.68 coins | 3.8% | 216 | 221.3 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-backup) [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) [El Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/El%20Gamblino%20%F0%9D%93%9C%F0%9D%93%90%F0%9D%93%95%F0%9D%93%98%F0%9D%93%90) $32.28 46.11 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $32.28 46.11 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $32.28 46.11 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $32.28 46.11 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $32.28 46.11 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.28 46.11 coins $164 234 coins 5.07x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $32.28 46.11 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $32.28 46.11 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) [ignashi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ignashi) $32.28 46.11 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $32.28 46.11 coins $65.46 93.51 coins 2.03x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $32.28 | 90.91% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.88 | 90.91% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.98 | 90.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.2% extraordinary 1.0% restricted 4.0% classified 33.8% consumer 59.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt