---
title: "The Beach case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "The Beach ($41.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.50% over 141 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Beach](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Beach

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach?window=all)

Price · $41.82 · 59.74 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $38.01 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.50% · 141 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 90.29% ±34.19 122 openings

30 days · 86.50% ±31.83 141 openings

since tracking started · 86.50% ±31.83 141 openings

-0.5% 158.0% 316.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach?window=24h) | 4 | 129.04% ±186.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach?window=7d) | 122 | 90.29% ±34.2 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach) | 141 | 86.50% ±31.8 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-beach?window=all) | 141 | 86.50% ±31.8 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 141 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $923 1,318 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $286 409 coins | 11.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $239 342 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $90.30 129 coins | 11.9% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.57× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $88.90 127 coins | 7.0% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $57.69 82.41 coins | 22.8% | 21 | 21.1 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 19.5% | $25.70 36.72 coins | 13.2% | 29 | 27.5 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $13.02 18.6 coins | 8.6% | 35 | 35.3 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) | 30.0% | $11.58 16.54 coins | 9.1% | 43 | 42.3 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $42.51 60.73 coins $945 1,350 coins 22.23x 2026-11-05 15:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-beach)

[P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.82 59.74 coins $88.90 127 coins 2.13x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.82 59.74 coins $57.69 82.41 coins 1.38x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.82 59.74 coins $57.69 82.41 coins 1.38x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $41.82 59.74 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $41.82 59.74 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 05:50 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $41.82 59.74 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 05:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) [Dunlap](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dunlap) $41.82 59.74 coins $25.70 36.72 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 05:50 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.82 59.74 coins $13.02 18.6 coins 0.31x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC

[P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.82 59.74 coins $88.90 127 coins 2.13x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.82 59.74 coins $57.69 82.41 coins 1.38x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $41.82 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.07 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.51 | 90.91% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 17.5% restricted 30.0% classified 22.5% mil spec 30.0% best hit $945 (22.23x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt