--- title: "The Black Pearl case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Black Pearl ($26.41) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 95.28% over 5,898 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl rendered: 2026-11-11T22:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Black Pearl A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl?window=all) Price · $26.41 · 37.73 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $24.01 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.28% · 5,898 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.55% ±16.81 717 openings 7 days · 95.77% ±6.81 4,396 openings 30 days · 95.28% ±5.88 5,898 openings since tracking started · 95.28% ±5.88 5,898 openings 60.0% 81.5% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl?window=24h) | 717 | 77.55% ±16.8 | −1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl?window=7d) | 4,396 | 95.77% ±6.81 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl) | 5,898 | 95.28% ±5.88 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-black-pearl?window=all) | 5,898 | 95.28% ±5.88 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,902 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100,000 | $806 1,152 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $561 801 coins | 9.3% | 25 | 23.6 | 1.06× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $465 664 coins | 7.7% | 22 | 23.6 | 0.93× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $368 526 coins | 6.1% | 28 | 23.6 | 1.19× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $146 208 coins | 7.3% | 64 | 70.8 | 0.90× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $131 187 coins | 8.2% | 90 | 88.5 | 1.02× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $97.30 139 coins | 8.1% | 121 | 118.0 | 1.03× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $58.99 84.27 coins | 5.2% | 133 | 123.8 | 1.07× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $57.75 82.5 coins | 4.8% | 105 | 118.0 | 0.89× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) | 45.0% | $21.61 30.87 coins | 40.5% | 2,623 | 2655.9 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | $1.25 1.79 coins | 2.3% | 2,690 | 2655.9 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $26.01 37.15 coins $7,000 10,000 coins 269.2x 2026-11-06 07:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $26.41 37.73 coins $561 801 coins 21.23x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $561 801 coins 21.23x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $561 801 coins 21.23x 2026-11-10 17:02 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) [BasHtricK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BasHtricK) $26.41 37.73 coins $561 801 coins 21.23x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $561 801 coins 21.23x 2026-11-09 22:44 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $561 801 coins 21.23x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $561 801 coins 21.23x 2026-11-09 20:56 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $561 801 coins 21.23x 2026-11-09 13:06 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.17 37.39 coins $561 801 coins 21.42x 2026-11-08 17:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-black-pearl) [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $1.25 1.79 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $21.61 30.87 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $21.61 30.87 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) [Soddo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Soddo) $26.41 37.73 coins $21.61 30.87 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $1.25 1.79 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:36 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $21.61 30.87 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 22:36 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $21.61 30.87 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 22:36 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) [Soddo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Soddo) $26.41 37.73 coins $21.61 30.87 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 22:36 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $97.30 139 coins 3.68x 2026-11-11 22:02 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.41 37.73 coins $21.61 30.87 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 22:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.41 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.17 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.01 | 90.92% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% industrial 90.0% best hit $7,000 (269.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt