---
title: "The Chickens case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Chickens ($64.40) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 86.19% over 234 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Chickens](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Chickens

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens?window=all)

Price · $64.40 · 92 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $58.54 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.19% · 234 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 88.47% ±18.28 222 openings

30 days · 86.19% ±17.81 234 openings

since tracking started · 86.19% ±17.81 234 openings

-0.5% 71.3% 143.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens?window=24h) | 13 | 66.33% ±76.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens?window=7d) | 222 | 88.47% ±18.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens) | 234 | 86.19% ±17.8 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chickens?window=all) | 234 | 86.19% ±17.8 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,534 13,620 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,521 10,745 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $697 996 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $472 674 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 67 | $329 470 coins | 8.4% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $300 428 coins | 15.4% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $289 413 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $207 296 coins | 21.0% | 14 | 14.3 | 0.98× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $156 223 coins | 13.3% | 9 | 12.0 | 0.75× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $81.90 117 coins | 11.2% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 10.0% | $52.26 74.66 coins | 8.9% | 18 | 24.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $48.94 69.91 coins | 5.9% | 19 | 16.8 | 1.13× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $27.90 39.86 coins | 3.8% | 16 | 19.2 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $15.03 21.47 coins | 2.8% | 20 | 26.4 | 0.76× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $9.84 14.06 coins | 3.4% | 61 | 48.0 | 1.27× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 20.0% | $6.99 9.99 coins | 2.4% | 53 | 48.0 | 1.10× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-chickens)

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $64.40 92 coins $6.99 9.99 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 07:15 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $64.40 92 coins $48.94 69.91 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 07:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) [Gohan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gohan) $64.40 92 coins $15.03 21.47 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 07:15 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $64.40 92 coins $48.94 69.91 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 07:14 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $64.40 92 coins $48.94 69.91 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 07:14 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) [Gohan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gohan) $64.40 92 coins $207 296 coins 3.22x 2026-11-11 07:14 UTC

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) [Gohan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gohan) $64.40 92 coins $6.99 9.99 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $64.40 92 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $64.40 92 coins $27.90 39.86 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) Hidden $64.40 92 coins $15.03 21.47 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $64.40 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $65.34 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $65.07 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 21.0% epic 0.0% exotic 1.5% restricted 43.0% classified 19.5% extraordinary 7.0% mil spec 8.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt