---
title: "The chicks case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The chicks ($70.17) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.69% over 226 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The chicks](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The chicks

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks?window=all)

Price · $70.17 · 100 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $63.79 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.69% · 226 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 41.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 91.44% ±6.73 204 openings

30 days · 90.69% ±6.40 226 openings

since tracking started · 90.69% ±6.40 226 openings

25.0% 93.0% 161.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks?window=24h) | 2 | 92.96% ±67.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks?window=7d) | 204 | 91.44% ±6.73 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks) | 226 | 90.69% ±6.40 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chicks?window=all) | 226 | 90.69% ±6.40 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $863 1,233 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $827 1,182 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $326 465 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $321 458 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 286 | $287 410 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $285 407 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Golden (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-golden-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 57 | $130 186 coins | 3.6% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $129 184 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $126 180 coins | 3.0% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $98.00 140 coins | 4.6% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $89.60 128 coins | 3.5% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.71× |
| [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $76.30 109 coins | 6.6% | 10 | 12.4 | 0.80× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 11.1% | $73.50 105 coins | 12.8% | 31 | 25.1 | 1.24× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 13.7% | $67.63 96.61 coins | 14.5% | 30 | 31.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-well-worn) | 14.2% | $66.56 95.09 coins | 14.8% | 25 | 32.1 | 0.78× |
| [Sticker \| NEO (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-foil-atlanta-2017) | 14.7% | $54.16 77.37 coins | 12.5% | 38 | 33.2 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-well-worn) | 15.1% | $36.55 52.21 coins | 8.7% | 33 | 34.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| allu (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-allu-foil-atlanta-2017) | 15.0% | $35.97 51.39 coins | 8.5% | 32 | 33.9 | 0.94× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-chicks)

[Tec-9 | Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-field-tested) Hidden $70.17 100 coins $76.30 109 coins 1.09x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[Sticker | NEO (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-foil-atlanta-2017) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $70.17 100 coins $54.16 77.37 coins 0.77x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) Hidden $70.17 100 coins $73.50 105 coins 1.05x 2026-11-10 13:49 UTC

[P250 | Apep's Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-well-worn) Hidden $70.17 100 coins $36.55 52.21 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 13:49 UTC

[Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) Hidden $70.17 100 coins $67.63 96.61 coins 0.96x 2026-11-10 13:49 UTC

[P250 | Apep's Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-well-worn) [DeeDee♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DeeDee%E2%99%A5) $70.17 100 coins $36.55 52.21 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 13:49 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) Hidden $70.17 100 coins $73.50 105 coins 1.05x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC

[Sticker | NEO (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $70.17 100 coins $54.16 77.37 coins 0.77x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC

[Sticker | NEO (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $70.17 100 coins $54.16 77.37 coins 0.77x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) Hidden $70.17 100 coins $98.00 140 coins 1.40x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $70.17 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $70.29 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $70.52 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.9% classified 16.0% extraordinary 13.7% restricted 16.3% mil spec 5.5% exotic 29.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt