--- title: "The Chosen One case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Chosen One ($5,042.86) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one rendered: 2026-11-11T22:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Chosen One](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Chosen One A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one?window=all) Price · $5,042.86 · 7,204 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $4,584.41 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-chosen-one?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $38K 54,245 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 56 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $11.6K 16,550 coins | 22.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $9,240 13,200 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 13.0% | $6,790 9,700 coins | 19.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $4,669 6,670 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 10.5% | $4,305 6,150 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1,724 2,463 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 15.0% | $1,544 2,206 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 20.2% | $302 432 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-chosen-one) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5,043 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,029 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 2.8% legendary 32.5% covert 42.0% contraband 2.5% extraordinary 20.2% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt