--- title: "The Code case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Code ($57.88) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 13 items with odds, observed 101.02% over 137 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code rendered: 2026-11-11T14:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Code](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Code A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code?window=all) Price · $57.88 · 82.69 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $52.62 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.02% · 137 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 99 openings · below min 30 days · 101.02% ±10.15 137 openings since tracking started · 101.02% ±10.15 137 openings 5.0% 59.0% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code?window=24h) | 6 | 54.16% ±48.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code?window=7d) | 99 | 100.25% ±11.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code) | 137 | 101.02% ±10.2 | +2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-code?window=all) | 137 | 101.02% ±10.2 | +2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 137 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $349 498 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $207 296 coins | 9.4% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $148 211 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $109 155 coins | 6.2% | 10 | 4.1 | 2.43× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $96.60 138 coins | 4.6% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $83.30 119 coins | 11.1% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.36× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $68.31 97.58 coins | 26.0% | 22 | 27.4 | 0.80× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $62.36 89.09 coins | 8.3% | 15 | 9.6 | 1.56× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $52.09 74.42 coins | 9.9% | 7 | 13.7 | 0.51× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $41.28 58.97 coins | 6.3% | 13 | 11.0 | 1.19× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 10.0% | $36.97 52.82 coins | 7.0% | 9 | 13.7 | 0.66× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $25.70 36.72 coins | 4.9% | 11 | 13.7 | 0.80× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 20.0% | $15.88 22.69 coins | 6.0% | 28 | 27.4 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-code) [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $57.88 82.69 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 82.69 coins $83.30 119 coins 1.44x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $57.88 82.69 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $57.88 82.69 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $57.88 82.69 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) [LT 75](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LT%2075) $57.88 82.69 coins $41.28 58.97 coins 0.71x 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.88 82.69 coins $68.31 97.58 coins 1.18x 2026-11-10 08:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) [Kroken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kroken) $57.88 82.69 coins $109 155 coins 1.87x 2026-11-10 08:02 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 82.69 coins $62.36 89.09 coins 1.08x 2026-11-09 15:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 82.69 coins $109 155 coins 1.87x 2026-11-09 15:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $57.88 | 90.90% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $57.81 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.83 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 27.0% classified 53.0% mil spec 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt