---
title: "The Compacter case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Compacter ($200.56) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 87.13% over 143 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Compacter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Compacter

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter?window=all)

Price · $200.56 · 287 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $182.33 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.13% · 143 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 35 openings · below min

7 days · 87.13% ±11.36 143 openings

30 days · 87.13% ±11.36 143 openings

since tracking started · 87.13% ±11.36 143 openings

58.5% 82.0% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter?window=24h) | 35 | 82.01% ±23.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter?window=7d) | 143 | 87.13% ±11.4 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter) | 143 | 87.13% ±11.4 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-compacter?window=all) | 143 | 87.13% ±11.4 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 143 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,426 3,465 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,616 2,308 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,050 1,500 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $804 1,148 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $652 932 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $421 601 coins | 3.6% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $350 500 coins | 4.4% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $302 432 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $292 417 coins | 7.2% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $230 328 coins | 8.3% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) | 14.0% | $193 276 coins | 14.8% | 17 | 20.0 | 0.85× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $183 262 coins | 6.0% | 4 | 8.6 | 0.47× |
| [Sticker \| S0tF1k (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s0tf1k-gold-london-2018) | 22.0% | $162 231 coins | 19.5% | 37 | 31.5 | 1.18× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 32.5% | $109 156 coins | 19.5% | 44 | 46.5 | 0.95× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $98.70 141 coins | 3.8% | 14 | 10.0 | 1.40× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [rosu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/rosu) $207 296 coins $849 1,213 coins 4.10x 2026-11-07 03:25 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $207 296 coins $704 1,006 coins 3.40x 2026-11-08 12:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-compacter)

[M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $201 287 coins $292 417 coins 1.46x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 287 coins $98.70 141 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 287 coins $109 156 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:40 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 287 coins $109 156 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) Hidden $201 287 coins $193 276 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-battle-scarred) Hidden $201 287 coins $350 500 coins 1.75x 2026-11-11 06:22 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 287 coins $98.70 141 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 06:20 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) [CRASH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/CRASH) $201 287 coins $193 276 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 02:15 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) [Mythic](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mythic) $201 287 coins $109 156 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 01:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) Hidden $201 287 coins $193 276 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 01:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $201 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $207 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 25.5% extraordinary 23.5% classified 51.0% best hit $849 (4.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt