--- title: "The Craftsman case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Craftsman ($25,295.50) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman rendered: 2026-11-11T18:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Craftsman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Craftsman A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman?window=all) Price · $25,295.50 · 36,136 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $22,995.91 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-craftsman?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Pascha sticker (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new-pascha-sticker-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $385K 550,000 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $210K 300,000 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $158K 225,000 coins | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) + 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $140K 200,000 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) 4x IBP Holo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $105K 150,000 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-reason-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $98K 140,000 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $70K 100,000 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new-titan-holo-3x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $56K 80,000 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $31.5K 45,000 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $29.7K 42,500 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x Titan (Holo) (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear-4x-titan-holo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $28K 40,000 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 13 | $25K 35,730 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $24.5K 35,000 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $22.8K 32,500 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 12.0% | $10.3K 14,660 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 12.0% | $3,458 4,940 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 12.0% | $2,716 3,880 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1,655 2,364 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1,369 1,955 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-craftsman) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.3K | 90.91% | 20 | | 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $25.3K | 90.91% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.3K | 90.91% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 39.1% base 7.9% remarkable 17.0% extraordinary 24.0% covert 12.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt