---
title: "The Doctor case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Doctor ($34.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.59% over 965 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Doctor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Doctor

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor?window=all)

Price · $34.29 · 48.99 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $31.17 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.59% · 965 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 16 openings · below min

7 days · 94.08% ±11.02 660 openings

30 days · 92.59% ±9.13 965 openings

since tracking started · 92.59% ±9.13 965 openings

82.5% 159.5% 236.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor?window=24h) | 16 | 165.80% ±69.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor?window=7d) | 660 | 94.08% ±11.0 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor) | 965 | 92.59% ±9.13 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-doctor?window=all) | 965 | 92.59% ±9.13 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 965 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $335 478 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $277 395 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $260 371 coins | 8.3% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.14× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $172 246 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $170 243 coins | 2.7% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.41× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $146 209 coins | 9.4% | 23 | 19.3 | 1.19× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $109 156 coins | 10.5% | 31 | 28.9 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $109 156 coins | 17.5% | 40 | 48.3 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $109 156 coins | 24.5% | 69 | 67.6 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $80.50 115 coins | 10.3% | 45 | 38.6 | 1.17× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $13.45 19.21 coins | 6.5% | 167 | 144.8 | 1.15× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $10.23 14.61 coins | 2.3% | 61 | 67.6 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-factory-new) | 14.0% | $8.86 12.66 coins | 4.0% | 138 | 135.1 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $6.92 9.89 coins | 2.1% | 75 | 91.5 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $2.02 2.88 coins | 1.0% | 143 | 154.4 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-factory-new) | 16.0% | $1.25 1.79 coins | 0.6% | 160 | 154.4 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-doctor)

[StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-minimal-wear) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $34.29 48.99 coins $2.02 2.88 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $1.25 1.79 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $109 156 coins 3.18x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $109 156 coins 3.18x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $8.86 12.66 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $146 209 coins 4.27x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $6.92 9.89 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 00:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $1.25 1.79 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:02 UTC

[AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $109 156 coins 3.18x 2026-11-11 00:02 UTC

[P250 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $34.29 48.99 coins $260 371 coins 7.57x 2026-11-11 00:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.29 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $34.24 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $34.43 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $34.42 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.42 | 90.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 16.5% mil spec 71.0% classified 12.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt