--- title: "The Dream case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Dream ($1.32) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 4 items with odds, observed 95.84% over 43.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream rendered: 2026-11-11T17:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Dream A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream?window=all) Price · $1.32 · 1.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $1.20 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.84% · 43.4K openings, odds method Variance · 3148.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 5,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 100.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5,483 openings · below min 7 days · 77.98% ±59.96 33.6K openings 30 days · 95.84% ±52.73 43.4K openings since tracking started · 95.84% ±52.73 43.4K openings -0.5% 114.3% 229.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream?window=24h) | 5,483 | 79.89% ±148.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream?window=7d) | 33.6K | 77.98% ±60.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream) | 43.4K | 95.84% ±52.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-dream?window=all) | 43.4K | 95.84% ±52.7 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 47.5% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.38× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 36.5% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 14.8% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 100.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 1.2% | 43,493 | 43492.9 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 4,322x 2026-11-10 20:42 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 4,322x 2026-11-09 15:23 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1.33 1.9 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 4,276x 2026-11-07 12:13 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1.33 1.9 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 4,276x 2026-11-04 23:09 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [prnd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/prnd) $1.33 1.9 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 4,276x 2026-11-04 17:21 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1.33 1.9 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 4,276x 2026-11-04 15:18 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 1.9 coins $4,480 6,400 coins 3,368x 2026-11-03 14:24 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 1.9 coins $4,480 6,400 coins 3,368x 2026-11-03 05:40 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $4,365 6,235 coins 3,316x 2026-11-10 05:18 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [Verslininkas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Verslininkas) $1.33 1.9 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 1,337x 2026-11-05 11:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-dream) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [MR president of USA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MR%20president%20of%20USA) $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Jan:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jan%3A%29) $1.32 1.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.32 | 90.93% | 4 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.33 | 90.87% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% contraband 0.0% consumer 100.0% best hit $5,688 (4,322x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt