--- title: "The Executioner case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Executioner ($18.10) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.71% over 4,115 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Executioner](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Executioner A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner?window=all) Price · $18.10 · 25.86 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $16.46 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.71% · 4,115 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 109.05% ±20.80 446 openings 7 days · 89.14% ±7.33 3,611 openings 30 days · 90.71% ±6.86 4,115 openings since tracking started · 90.71% ±6.86 4,115 openings 81.0% 105.8% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner?window=24h) | 446 | 109.05% ±20.8 | +1.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner?window=7d) | 3,611 | 89.14% ±7.33 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner) | 4,115 | 90.71% ±6.86 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-executioner?window=all) | 4,115 | 90.71% ±6.86 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,119 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $856 1,223 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $788 1,125 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $331 473 coins | 4.0% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.21× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $202 288 coins | 6.1% | 21 | 20.6 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $84.00 120 coins | 16.6% | 126 | 133.6 | 0.94× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $81.20 116 coins | 9.9% | 90 | 82.4 | 1.09× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $80.50 115 coins | 39.1% | 327 | 329.5 | 0.99× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $69.48 99.25 coins | 4.2% | 31 | 41.2 | 0.75× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $64.58 92.25 coins | 11.8% | 139 | 123.6 | 1.12× | | [★ Navaja Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife) | 1 in 50 | $37.63 53.76 coins | 4.6% | 70 | 82.4 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) | 80.0% | $0.17 0.24 coins | 0.8% | 3,303 | 3295.2 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $18.41 26.3 coins $875 1,250 coins 47.53x 2026-11-03 18:01 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $18.41 26.3 coins $798 1,140 coins 43.35x 2026-11-07 07:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-executioner) [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) [doubledown](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/doubledown) $18.10 25.86 coins $80.50 115 coins 4.45x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-minimal-wear) [doubledown](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/doubledown) $18.10 25.86 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $18.10 | 90.92% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.09 | 90.90% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.35 | 90.89% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.41 | 90.92% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 19.5% classified 0.5% industrial 80.0% best hit $875 (47.53x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt