--- title: "The Forge case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Forge ($86.93) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 95.04% over 247 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Forge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Forge A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge?window=all) Price · $86.93 · 124 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $79.03 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.04% · 247 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 93.99% ±33.33 228 openings 30 days · 95.04% ±32.02 247 openings since tracking started · 95.04% ±32.02 247 openings -0.5% 157.8% 316.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge?window=24h) | 3 | 22.64% ±292.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge?window=7d) | 228 | 93.99% ±33.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge) | 247 | 95.04% ±32.0 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-forge?window=all) | 247 | 95.04% ±32.0 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 247 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $4,277 6,110 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,667 3,810 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $636 909 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $617 882 coins | 7.8% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.43× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $384 549 coins | 24.3% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.21× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $265 379 coins | 10.1% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.21× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $117 167 coins | 10.4% | 15 | 17.3 | 0.87× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $100 143 coins | 8.9% | 16 | 17.3 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 20.0% | $40.87 58.38 coins | 10.3% | 55 | 49.4 | 1.11× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 21.5% | $35.62 50.88 coins | 9.7% | 44 | 53.1 | 0.83× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 35.0% | $9.09 12.99 coins | 4.0% | 86 | 86.4 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Lange](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lange) $87.68 125 coins $641 915 coins 7.30x 2026-11-05 14:45 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $617 882 coins 7.10x 2026-11-10 00:35 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $87.68 125 coins $610 871 coins 6.95x 2026-11-06 21:15 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $87.68 125 coins $610 871 coins 6.95x 2026-11-05 14:49 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $87.68 125 coins $610 871 coins 6.95x 2026-11-05 14:48 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [hellsten05](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hellsten05) $87.68 125 coins $610 871 coins 6.95x 2026-11-03 21:48 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $87.68 125 coins $610 871 coins 6.95x 2026-11-03 13:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-forge) [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $40.87 58.38 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 15:48 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 15:48 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) [alguz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/alguz) $86.93 124 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 15:48 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $40.87 58.38 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 02:58 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $117 167 coins 1.34x 2026-11-10 02:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $35.62 50.88 coins 0.41x 2026-11-10 02:58 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $100 143 coins 1.15x 2026-11-10 02:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $40.87 58.38 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 02:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [Demonas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Demonas) $86.93 124 coins $40.87 58.38 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 02:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $86.93 124 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 02:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $86.93 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $87.46 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $87.68 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.2% covert 43.3% classified 21.5% restricted 35.0% best hit $641 (7.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt