--- title: "The Gift case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Gift ($104.34) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 102.82% over 48 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Gift](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Gift A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift?window=all) Price · $104.34 · 149 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $94.86 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.82% · 48 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 48 openings · below min since tracking started · 48 openings · below min 67.0% 98.5% 130.0% **Small sample.** 48 openings and 10.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift?window=7d) | 32 | 98.40% ±30.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift) | 48 | 102.82% ±25.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-gift?window=all) | 48 | 102.82% ±25.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $941 1,344 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $795 1,135 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $446 637 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $445 636 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $295 421 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $242 346 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 15.4% | $211 301 coins | 34.2% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $158 226 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.74× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $143 204 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $101 144 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $94.50 135 coins | 6.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $83.30 119 coins | 6.8% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 12.0% | $69.05 98.65 coins | 8.7% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $61.62 88.03 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 14.0% | $39.37 56.24 coins | 5.8% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 14.0% | $39.07 55.82 coins | 5.8% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $28.27 40.38 coins | 4.5% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.53× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $106 151 coins $944 1,348 coins 8.94x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-gift) [AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $104 149 coins $28.27 40.38 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $104 149 coins $83.30 119 coins 0.80x 2026-11-10 19:44 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $104 149 coins $61.62 88.03 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 19:44 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-factory-new) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $104 149 coins $39.07 55.82 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:44 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-factory-new) Hidden $106 151 coins $39.31 56.15 coins 0.37x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $106 151 coins $212 303 coins 2.01x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $106 151 coins $944 1,348 coins 8.94x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC [AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $106 151 coins $27.07 38.67 coins 0.26x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [User#914](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23914) $106 151 coins $70.70 101 coins 0.67x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC [AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $106 151 coins $27.07 38.67 coins 0.26x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $106 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 41.7% extraordinary 3.5% classified 6.0% mil spec 36.8% restricted 12.0% best hit $944 (8.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt