---
title: "The Glitch case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Glitch ($32.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 93.82% over 558 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Glitch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Glitch

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch?window=all)

Price · $32.05 · 45.78 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $29.13 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.82% · 558 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 92.41% ±8.38 467 openings

30 days · 93.82% ±7.68 558 openings

since tracking started · 93.82% ±7.68 558 openings

83.5% 138.2% 193.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch?window=24h) | 12 | 141.61% ±50.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch?window=7d) | 467 | 92.41% ±8.38 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch) | 558 | 93.82% ±7.68 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-glitch?window=all) | 558 | 93.82% ±7.68 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 558 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $860 1,228 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $454 648 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $98.70 141 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 10.0% | $91.70 131 coins | 31.5% | 66 | 55.8 | 1.18× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $81.90 117 coins | 14.1% | 29 | 27.9 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $63.80 91.14 coins | 6.6% | 13 | 16.7 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $36.97 52.82 coins | 2.5% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $32.87 46.96 coins | 11.3% | 48 | 55.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $30.09 42.98 coins | 10.3% | 51 | 55.8 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 10.0% | $28.64 40.91 coins | 9.8% | 57 | 55.8 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $13.66 19.51 coins | 4.7% | 46 | 55.8 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $11.38 16.26 coins | 3.9% | 76 | 55.8 | 1.36× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-well-worn) | 10.0% | $10.33 14.75 coins | 3.5% | 59 | 55.8 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $3.42 4.88 coins | 1.2% | 50 | 55.8 | 0.90× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.22 1.75 coins | 0.4% | 52 | 55.8 | 0.93× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-glitch)

[M249 | System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) Hidden $32.05 45.78 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.05 45.78 coins $13.66 19.51 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $32.05 45.78 coins $30.09 42.98 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $32.05 45.78 coins $28.64 40.91 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $32.05 45.78 coins $28.64 40.91 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $32.05 45.78 coins $91.70 131 coins 2.86x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $32.05 45.78 coins $81.90 117 coins 2.56x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $32.05 45.78 coins $30.09 42.98 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) Hidden $32.05 45.78 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC

[AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) Hidden $32.05 45.78 coins $63.80 91.14 coins 1.99x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $32.05 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $32.04 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.28 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $30.96 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $30.95 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $30.88 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.88 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% mil spec 30.0% classified 40.0% restricted 20.0% industrial 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt