--- title: "The Hammer case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Hammer ($1.18) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 14 items with odds, observed 91.52% over 55.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Hammer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Hammer A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer?window=all) Price · $1.18 · 1.68 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $1.07 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.52% · 55.6K openings, odds method Variance · 19.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.58% ±10.67 6,647 openings 7 days · 90.66% ±4.07 45K openings 30 days · 91.52% ±3.66 55.6K openings since tracking started · 91.52% ±3.66 55.6K openings 76.5% 87.8% 99.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer?window=24h) | 6,647 | 87.58% ±10.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer?window=7d) | 45K | 90.66% ±4.07 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer) | 55.6K | 91.52% ±3.66 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-hammer?window=all) | 55.6K | 91.52% ±3.66 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $49.41 70.59 coins | 46.2% | 572 | 556.1 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $18.43 26.33 coins | 17.2% | 540 | 556.1 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.65 5.21 coins | 10.2% | 1,677 | 1668.3 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.05 1.5 coins | 5.8% | 3,192 | 3281.0 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.76 1.08 coins | 2.1% | 1,660 | 1668.3 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.64 0.91 coins | 3.0% | 2,759 | 2780.5 | 0.99× | | [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.64 0.91 coins | 4.8% | 4,435 | 4448.8 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-ripple-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.58 0.83 coins | 2.7% | 2,824 | 2780.5 | 1.02× | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.51 0.73 coins | 2.4% | 2,786 | 2780.5 | 1.00× | | [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 3.2% | 6,161 | 6117.1 | 1.01× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 1.0% | 5,549 | 5561.0 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.08 0.11 coins | 0.8% | 6,243 | 6117.1 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.3% | 7,705 | 7785.4 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-minimal-wear) | 17.1% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.3% | 9,507 | 9509.3 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-hammer) [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $1.18 1.68 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-ripple-factory-new) Hidden $1.18 1.68 coins $0.58 0.83 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.18 1.68 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $1.18 1.68 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) [Mus1Cy SENSE!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mus1Cy%20SENSE!) $1.18 1.68 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.18 1.68 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 15.67x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $1.18 1.68 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [MP7 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $1.18 1.68 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) Hidden $1.18 1.68 coins $0.76 1.08 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-field-tested) [Mus1Cy SENSE!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mus1Cy%20SENSE!) $1.18 1.68 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.18 | 90.92% | 14 | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.17 | 91.13% | 14 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.18 | 90.75% | 14 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.18 | 91.00% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.18 | 91.06% | 14 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $1.18 | 90.79% | 14 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $1.18 | 90.84% | 14 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.18 | 90.81% | 14 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $1.18 | 90.92% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.18 | 91.10% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 30.0% restricted 4.0% consumer 31.0% industrial 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt