--- title: "The Impaler case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Impaler ($498.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Impaler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Impaler A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler?window=all) Price · $498.57 · 712 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $453.24 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 45.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-impaler?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 40 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 14.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 13 | $790 1,129 coins | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $709 1,013 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 15.5% | $597 853 coins | 20.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 22.5% | $576 823 coins | 28.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers) | 1 in 20 | $88.20 126 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $82.60 118 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $80.50 115 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $61.54 87.92 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 15.0% | $56.39 80.56 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-impaler) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $499 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $499 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $506 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 100.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt