--- title: "The Knight case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Knight ($65.56) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 93.59% over 792 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight rendered: 2026-11-11T13:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Knight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Knight A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight?window=all) Price · $65.56 · 93.65 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $59.60 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.59% · 792 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 88.75% ±9.29 574 openings 30 days · 93.59% ±7.92 792 openings since tracking started · 93.59% ±7.92 792 openings 79.0% 162.0% 245.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight?window=24h) | 10 | 174.29% ±70.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight?window=7d) | 574 | 88.75% ±9.29 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight) | 792 | 93.59% ±7.92 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-knight?window=all) | 792 | 93.59% ±7.92 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 792 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $765 1,093 coins | 0.6% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $536 766 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.89× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $260 371 coins | 10.2% | 17 | 18.5 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $221 316 coins | 7.4% | 14 | 15.8 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $210 300 coins | 4.2% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $207 296 coins | 3.5% | 10 | 7.9 | 1.26× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $197 281 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.63× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $186 265 coins | 4.4% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.08× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $113 161 coins | 18.9% | 73 | 79.2 | 0.92× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $108 154 coins | 7.2% | 39 | 31.7 | 1.23× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $99.40 142 coins | 13.3% | 79 | 63.4 | 1.25× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $79.80 114 coins | 6.7% | 34 | 39.6 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $46.92 67.03 coins | 3.9% | 32 | 39.6 | 0.81× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $44.78 63.97 coins | 5.3% | 42 | 55.4 | 0.76× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 10.0% | $25.44 36.34 coins | 4.3% | 77 | 79.2 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 12.0% | $11.90 17 coins | 2.4% | 102 | 95.0 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $9.96 14.23 coins | 2.3% | 108 | 110.9 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) | 16.0% | $1.53 2.18 coins | 0.4% | 134 | 126.7 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $66.09 94.42 coins $765 1,093 coins 11.58x 2026-11-03 04:34 UTC [★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $66.09 94.42 coins $765 1,093 coins 11.58x 2026-11-03 01:16 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $66.09 94.42 coins $540 772 coins 8.18x 2026-11-03 01:24 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $65.56 93.65 coins $536 766 coins 8.18x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $536 766 coins 8.18x 2026-11-09 22:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-knight) [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $210 300 coins 3.20x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $65.56 93.65 coins $536 766 coins 8.18x 2026-11-11 05:40 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $11.90 17 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 23:43 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.52x 2026-11-10 23:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.56 93.65 coins $108 154 coins 1.64x 2026-11-10 23:43 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $65.56 93.65 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.52x 2026-11-10 23:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $65.56 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $65.84 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $66.09 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 36.0% covert 36.6% mil spec 18.3% Ancient 4.0% restricted 5.0% best hit $765 (11.58x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt