--- title: "The Launch case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Launch ($16.43) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.46% over 2,137 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Launch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Launch A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch?window=all) Price · $16.43 · 23.47 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $14.94 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.46% · 2,137 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 75.44% ±27.09 178 openings 7 days · 89.03% ±8.51 1,788 openings 30 days · 89.46% ±7.78 2,137 openings since tracking started · 89.46% ±7.78 2,137 openings 47.5% 75.3% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch?window=24h) | 178 | 75.44% ±27.1 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch?window=7d) | 1,788 | 89.03% ±8.51 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch) | 2,137 | 89.46% ±7.78 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-launch?window=all) | 2,137 | 89.46% ±7.78 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,137 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $377 539 coins | 7.6% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $318 454 coins | 2.1% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.40× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $93.10 133 coins | 3.1% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $77.00 110 coins | 12.9% | 49 | 53.4 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $71.40 102 coins | 4.8% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $63.41 90.59 coins | 17.0% | 79 | 85.5 | 0.92× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $40.87 58.38 coins | 21.9% | 157 | 171.0 | 0.92× | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-factory-new) | 12.0% | $23.72 33.88 coins | 19.1% | 262 | 256.4 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $4.14 5.91 coins | 5.5% | 439 | 427.4 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $2.94 4.2 coins | 4.9% | 550 | 534.3 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 26.6% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 1.1% | 558 | 568.4 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-launch) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.43 23.47 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) Hidden $16.43 23.47 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.43 23.47 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.43 23.47 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.43 23.47 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $16.43 23.47 coins $40.87 58.38 coins 2.49x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.43 23.47 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.43 23.47 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) [POOF](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/POOF) $16.43 23.47 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) Hidden $16.43 23.47 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $16.43 | 90.92% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $16.40 | 90.92% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.41 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.21 | 90.89% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $16.18 | 90.92% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $16.13 | 90.90% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.16 | 90.92% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 12.3% restricted 47.6% covert 13.5% mil spec 26.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt