---
title: "The Market case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Market ($73.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 95.64% over 167 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Market](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Market

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market?window=all)

Price · $73.92 · 106 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $67.20 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.64% · 167 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 62 openings · below min

7 days · 90.27% ±27.25 130 openings

30 days · 95.64% ±24.09 167 openings

since tracking started · 95.64% ±24.09 167 openings

47.5% 87.5% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market?window=24h) | 62 | 87.70% ±39.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market?window=7d) | 130 | 90.27% ±27.3 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market) | 167 | 95.64% ±24.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-market?window=all) | 167 | 95.64% ±24.1 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 167 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,277 6,110 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,935 2,765 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $643 918 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $630 900 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $435 622 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 71 | $385 550 coins | 8.0% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $354 505 coins | 5.8% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.18× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $206 294 coins | 7.7% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $177 253 coins | 23.7% | 18 | 15.0 | 1.20× |
| [Sticker \| S0tF1k (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s0tf1k-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 17 | $162 231 coins | 14.4% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $67.35 96.22 coins | 6.0% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $41.03 58.61 coins | 4.9% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 12.0% | $27.62 39.45 coins | 4.9% | 25 | 20.0 | 1.25× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) | 20.0% | $16.46 23.51 coins | 4.9% | 31 | 33.4 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) | 15.7% | $13.04 18.63 coins | 3.0% | 22 | 26.2 | 0.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-well-worn) | 17.0% | $11.18 15.97 coins | 2.8% | 28 | 28.4 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $74.00 106 coins $622 889 coins 8.41x 2026-11-03 17:50 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-market)

[Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) Hidden $73.92 106 coins $13.04 18.63 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-well-worn) Hidden $73.92 106 coins $11.18 15.97 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $73.92 106 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $73.92 106 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-well-worn) Hidden $73.92 106 coins $11.18 15.97 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $73.92 106 coins $16.46 23.51 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $73.92 106 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $73.92 106 coins $41.03 58.61 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $73.92 106 coins $67.35 96.22 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.92 106 coins $177 253 coins 2.40x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $73.92 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $73.94 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $73.99 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $74.24 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $74.00 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $74.06 | 90.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 21.3% extraordinary 6.0% classified 20.0% mil spec 52.7% best hit $622 (8.41x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt