---
title: "The One case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "The One ($45.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 86.59% over 14.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The One](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The One

A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one?window=all)

Price · $45.27 · 64.67 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $41.16 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.59% · 14.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 252.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 431 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.55% ±66.37 2,199 openings

7 days · 89.96% ±28.96 11.4K openings

30 days · 86.59% ±25.93 14.2K openings

since tracking started · 86.59% ±25.93 14.2K openings

31.5% 98.5% 165.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one?window=24h) | 2,199 | 98.55% ±66.4 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one?window=7d) | 11.4K | 89.96% ±29.0 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one) | 14.2K | 86.59% ±25.9 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-one?window=all) | 14.2K | 86.59% ±25.9 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $210K 300,000 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) + 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $140K 200,000 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-reason-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $98K 140,000 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $63.7K 90,950 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $30.1K 42,950 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $27.5K 39,250 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $11.5K 16,375 coins | 8.4% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.7K 15,300 coins | 13.0% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.41× |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,667 | $6,780 9,685 coins | 9.9% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $6,269 8,955 coins | 10.7% | 10 | 9.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 12.0% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $4,946 7,065 coins | 10.8% | 15 | 12.8 | 1.17× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 1,019 | $3,024 4,320 coins | 7.2% | 18 | 13.9 | 1.29× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,679 2,398 coins | 4.1% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,000 1,428 coins | 2.4% | 7 | 14.2 | 0.49× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $957 1,367 coins | 2.3% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $888 1,269 coins | 2.2% | 17 | 14.2 | 1.20× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $636 909 coins | 1.5% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 24.0% | $0.04 0.06 coins | 0.0% | 3,368 | 3409.4 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 3,639 | 3551.5 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.03 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 3,535 | 3551.5 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 3,529 | 3551.5 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $45.27 64.67 coins $21.8K 31,155 coins 481.8x 2026-11-10 09:39 UTC

[Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $20.8K 29,650 coins 458.5x 2026-11-10 17:15 UTC

[Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $20.8K 29,650 coins 458.5x 2026-11-09 07:38 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $11.5K 16,375 coins 253.2x 2026-11-10 15:35 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [m1dde](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1dde) $45.27 64.67 coins $11.5K 16,375 coins 253.2x 2026-11-09 16:27 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [i want to cry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/i%20want%20to%20cry) $46.26 66.09 coins $11.5K 16,375 coins 247.8x 2026-11-08 07:11 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $46.26 66.09 coins $11.5K 16,375 coins 247.8x 2026-11-03 07:06 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $10.7K 15,300 coins 236.6x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $10.7K 15,300 coins 236.6x 2026-11-10 17:56 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $10.7K 15,300 coins 236.6x 2026-11-10 16:50 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-one)

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $45.27 64.67 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $0.04 0.06 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $45.27 64.67 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $45.27 64.67 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $45.27 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $45.27 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $46.26 | 90.91% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% remarkable 0.1% covert 0.8% consumer 99.0% best hit $21.8K (481.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt