--- title: "The Pact case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Pact ($285.66) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 58.98% over 666 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Pact](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Pact A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact?window=all) Price · $285.66 · 408 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $259.69 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.98% · 666 openings, odds method Variance · 66.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 152 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68 openings · below min 7 days · 574 openings · below min 30 days · 666 openings · below min since tracking started · 666 openings · below min -0.5% 212.3% 425.0% **Small sample.** 666 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact?window=24h) | 68 | 230.46% ±194.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact?window=7d) | 574 | 67.30% ±66.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact) | 666 | 58.98% ±61.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pact?window=all) | 666 | 58.98% ±61.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 666 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 303 | $38K 54,245 coins | 48.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $9,870 14,100 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 303 | $7,297 10,425 coins | 9.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $4,025 5,750 coins | 5.1% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.82× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $3,923 5,605 coins | 5.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $3,458 4,940 coins | 4.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.37× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 303 | $2,769 3,955 coins | 3.5% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.82× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 303 | $1,086 1,552 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 303 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $911 1,302 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 303 | $816 1,166 coins | 1.0% | 6 | 2.2 | 2.73× | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $682 974 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 303 | $239 342 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 263 | $169 242 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 31.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 199 | 206.5 | 0.96× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 32.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 224 | 213.1 | 1.05× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 32.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 210 | 213.1 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $286 408 coins $38K 54,245 coins 132.9x 2026-11-11 03:48 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $287 410 coins $7,476 10,680 coins 26.04x 2026-11-07 00:34 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $287 410 coins $4,480 6,400 coins 15.61x 2026-11-04 22:21 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $286 408 coins $4,365 6,235 coins 15.28x 2026-11-09 20:20 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) Hidden $286 408 coins $4,025 5,750 coins 14.09x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $286 408 coins $4,025 5,750 coins 14.09x 2026-11-09 09:14 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) Hidden $287 410 coins $4,025 5,750 coins 14.02x 2026-11-04 19:03 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) Hidden $287 410 coins $4,025 5,750 coins 14.02x 2026-11-04 18:58 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $286 408 coins $3,923 5,605 coins 13.74x 2026-11-08 21:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) [Robond](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Robond) $287 410 coins $3,923 5,605 coins 13.67x 2026-11-07 00:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-pact) [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) Hidden $286 408 coins $4,025 5,750 coins 14.09x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [sasz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sasz) $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $286 408 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $286 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $287 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.3% extraordinary 1.0% contraband 0.7% covert 2.7% epic 0.3% consumer 95.0% best hit $38K (132.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt