--- title: "The Pyromaniac case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Pyromaniac ($25.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.85% over 1,738 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac rendered: 2026-11-11T18:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Pyromaniac](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Pyromaniac A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac?window=all) Price · $25.07 · 35.82 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $22.80 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.85% · 1,738 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70.96% ±42.58 130 openings 7 days · 85.98% ±13.18 1,361 openings 30 days · 88.85% ±11.67 1,738 openings since tracking started · 88.85% ±11.67 1,738 openings 27.5% 70.8% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac?window=24h) | 130 | 70.96% ±42.6 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac?window=7d) | 1,361 | 85.98% ±13.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac) | 1,738 | 88.85% ±11.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-pyromaniac?window=all) | 1,738 | 88.85% ±11.7 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,738 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $293 419 coins | 6.4% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.04× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $286 409 coins | 50.2% | 66 | 69.5 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $279 398 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $207 296 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $129 184 coins | 4.5% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.58× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $122 175 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $90.30 129 coins | 23.8% | 113 | 104.3 | 1.08× | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $15.51 22.16 coins | 6.1% | 163 | 156.4 | 1.04× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.99 9.98 coins | 4.6% | 281 | 260.7 | 1.08× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $1.95 2.78 coins | 1.9% | 371 | 382.4 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) | 42.6% | $1.09 1.55 coins | 2.0% | 727 | 741.0 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-pyromaniac) [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.07 35.82 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) Hidden $25.07 35.82 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) Hidden $25.07 35.82 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $25.07 35.82 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) Hidden $25.07 35.82 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $25.07 35.82 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) Hidden $25.07 35.82 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.07 35.82 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) Hidden $25.07 35.82 coins $6.99 9.98 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $25.07 35.82 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.07 | 90.92% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.42 | 90.92% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $25.52 | 90.90% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.47 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 52.1% covert 10.1% classified 0.8% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% mil spec 22.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt