--- title: "The Reaper case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Reaper ($86.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 88.85% over 1,939 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Reaper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Reaper A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper?window=all) Price · $86.75 · 124 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $78.87 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.85% · 1,939 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.42% ±17.95 239 openings 7 days · 88.63% ±6.67 1,716 openings 30 days · 88.85% ±6.27 1,939 openings since tracking started · 88.85% ±6.27 1,939 openings 64.0% 82.5% 101.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper?window=24h) | 239 | 82.42% ±18.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper?window=7d) | 1,716 | 88.63% ±6.67 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper) | 1,939 | 88.85% ±6.27 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-reaper?window=all) | 1,939 | 88.85% ±6.27 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,941 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 6.9% | 6 | 9.7 | 0.62× | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,066 1,523 coins | 6.8% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.03× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $382 545 coins | 2.4% | 13 | 9.7 | 1.34× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $216 308 coins | 8.2% | 56 | 58.2 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-battle-scarred) | 13.5% | $188 268 coins | 32.1% | 249 | 262.0 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $142 203 coins | 9.0% | 94 | 97.1 | 0.97× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 10.0% | $83.30 119 coins | 10.6% | 223 | 194.1 | 1.15× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $80.50 115 coins | 10.2% | 195 | 194.1 | 1.00× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $72.80 104 coins | 4.6% | 99 | 97.1 | 1.02× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 3.9% | 133 | 135.9 | 0.98× | | [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 10.0% | $19.87 28.38 coins | 2.5% | 196 | 194.1 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.45 16.36 coins | 1.5% | 179 | 194.1 | 0.92× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 10.0% | $10.23 14.61 coins | 1.3% | 204 | 194.1 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.45 0.64 coins | 0.1% | 284 | 291.2 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $88.01 126 coins $1,116 1,594 coins 12.68x 2026-11-08 00:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $88.01 126 coins $1,116 1,594 coins 12.68x 2026-11-05 08:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $88.01 126 coins $1,116 1,594 coins 12.68x 2026-11-03 21:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $1,090 1,557 coins 12.56x 2026-11-10 11:39 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [stzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/stzy) $86.75 124 coins $1,090 1,557 coins 12.56x 2026-11-09 17:42 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $1,090 1,557 coins 12.56x 2026-11-09 01:40 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $1,066 1,523 coins 12.29x 2026-11-11 05:34 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $1,066 1,523 coins 12.29x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $1,066 1,523 coins 12.29x 2026-11-09 19:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) [Uchiha Madara](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Uchiha%20Madara) $86.75 124 coins $1,066 1,523 coins 12.29x 2026-11-09 08:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-reaper) [StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-battle-scarred) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $72.80 104 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-battle-scarred) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $72.80 104 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $86.75 124 coins $142 203 coins 1.64x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $86.75 124 coins $19.87 28.38 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-battle-scarred) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $188 268 coins 2.16x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-battle-scarred) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $72.80 104 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $86.75 124 coins $142 203 coins 1.64x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.75 124 coins $43.41 62.02 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $86.75 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $86.76 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $87.14 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $88.01 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 43.0% extraordinary 5.0% classified 7.0% restricted 10.0% mil spec 35.0% best hit $1,116 (12.68x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt