--- title: "The Rebuild case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Rebuild ($8.73) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 11 items with odds, observed 100.27% over 3,578 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild rendered: 2026-11-11T19:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Rebuild](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Rebuild A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild?window=all) Price · $8.73 · 12.47 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $7.93 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.27% · 3,578 openings, odds method Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.76% ±23.71 524 openings 7 days · 100.08% ±10.03 2,924 openings 30 days · 100.27% ±9.06 3,578 openings since tracking started · 100.27% ±9.06 3,578 openings 65.5% 89.8% 114.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.20% – 109.33%, 3,578 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild?window=24h) | 524 | 89.76% ±23.7 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild?window=7d) | 2,924 | 100.08% ±10.0 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild) | 3,578 | 100.27% ±9.06 | +2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-rebuild?window=all) | 3,578 | 100.27% ±9.06 | +2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,578 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $172 246 coins | 27.1% | 51 | 44.7 | 1.14× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $129 184 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $72.80 104 coins | 45.9% | 208 | 178.9 | 1.16× | | [Tec-9 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.91 11.3 coins | 2.0% | 76 | 71.6 | 1.06× | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.96 8.51 coins | 3.0% | 143 | 143.1 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 11.0% | $5.20 7.43 coins | 7.2% | 384 | 393.6 | 0.98× | | [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.79 6.85 coins | 1.2% | 75 | 71.6 | 1.05× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 19.7% | $4.36 6.23 coins | 10.9% | 655 | 706.3 | 0.93× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.32 1.88 coins | 2.5% | 519 | 536.7 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 712 | 715.6 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 755 | 715.6 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-rebuild) [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [I'm the best bird](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I'm%20the%20best%20bird) $8.73 12.47 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC [FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins $5.96 8.51 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) Hidden $8.73 12.47 coins $1.32 1.88 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $8.73 | 90.89% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.73 | 90.87% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.72 | 90.90% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $8.67 | 90.90% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.69 | 90.89% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.3% consumer 42.0% restricted 6.0% mil spec 26.0% classified 19.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt