--- title: "The Recipe case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Recipe ($10.17) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 92.62% over 13.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe rendered: 2026-11-11T17:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Recipe](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Recipe A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe?window=all) Price · $10.17 · 14.53 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $9.25 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.62% · 13.1K openings, odds method Variance · 13.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.39% ±17.82 1,615 openings 7 days · 94.01% ±6.95 10.8K openings 30 days · 92.62% ±6.34 13.1K openings since tracking started · 92.62% ±6.34 13.1K openings 66.0% 84.5% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe?window=24h) | 1,615 | 84.39% ±17.8 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe?window=7d) | 10.8K | 94.01% ±6.95 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe) | 13.1K | 92.62% ±6.34 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-recipe?window=all) | 13.1K | 92.62% ±6.34 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,136 4,480 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $805 1,150 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $385 550 coins | 1.2% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.78× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $225 321 coins | 1.2% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $160 228 coins | 3.5% | 23 | 26.2 | 0.88× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $104 149 coins | 22.6% | 239 | 262.5 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $98.70 141 coins | 32.0% | 397 | 393.7 | 1.01× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $60.26 86.08 coins | 2.6% | 47 | 52.5 | 0.90× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $49.60 70.86 coins | 4.3% | 102 | 105.0 | 0.97× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $32.44 46.34 coins | 8.8% | 328 | 328.1 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $21.55 30.78 coins | 11.7% | 621 | 656.2 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $13.95 19.93 coins | 9.1% | 811 | 787.9 | 1.03× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 5,200 | 5249.2 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 5,340 | 5249.2 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins $4,288 6,125 coins 421.5x 2026-11-09 21:06 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $10.17 14.53 coins $3,136 4,480 coins 308.3x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $9.93 14.19 coins $818 1,169 coins 82.38x 2026-11-08 03:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-recipe) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [CryderCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/CryderCS) $10.17 14.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-well-worn) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins $13.95 19.93 coins 1.37x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Elite Orion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elite%20Orion) $10.17 14.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-well-worn) Hidden $10.17 14.53 coins $13.95 19.93 coins 1.37x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.17 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.03 | 90.94% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.93 | 90.90% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% high 0.0% covert 6.3% extraordinary 2.7% classified 11.0% consumer 80.0% best hit $4,288 (421.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt