--- title: "The Santa case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Santa ($256.73) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.37% over 131 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa rendered: 2026-11-12T01:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Santa](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Santa A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa?window=all) Price · $256.73 · 367 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $233.39 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.37% · 131 openings, odds method Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 85.54% ±4.93 109 openings 30 days · 86.37% ±4.51 131 openings since tracking started · 86.37% ±4.51 131 openings 75.5% 88.3% 101.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.86% – 90.88%, 131 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa?window=24h) | 18 | 88.28% ±12.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa?window=7d) | 109 | 85.54% ±4.93 | −2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa) | 131 | 86.37% ±4.51 | −2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-santa?window=all) | 131 | 86.37% ±4.51 | −2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 131 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,397 1,996 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,100 1,571 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $811 1,159 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $532 760 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $507 724 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $426 609 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $386 551 coins | 5.0% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $289 413 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $251 359 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 90.0% | $215 307 coins | 82.9% | 124 | 117.9 | 1.05× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-santa) [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-12 00:41 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 22:59 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 22:09 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [drmugg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/drmugg) $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $426 609 coins 1.66x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $257 367 coins $215 307 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $257 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $259 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.4% extraordinary 2.1% covert 97.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt