--- title: "The Scale case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Scale ($1.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.82% from 8 items with odds, observed 91.29% over 38.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Scale](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Scale A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale?window=all) Price · $1.57 · 2.24 coins Advertised RTP · 90.82% · EV $1.42 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.29% · 38.5K openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.99% ±5.72 3,117 openings 7 days · 90.91% ±1.83 30.3K openings 30 days · 91.29% ±1.62 38.5K openings since tracking started · 91.29% ±1.62 38.5K openings 78.5% 86.0% 93.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale?window=24h) | 3,117 | 84.99% ±5.72 | −2.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale?window=7d) | 30.3K | 90.91% ±1.83 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale) | 38.5K | 91.29% ±1.62 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-scale?window=all) | 38.5K | 91.29% ±1.62 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $19.49 27.84 coins | 2.7% | 73 | 77.0 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $11.26 16.08 coins | 31.6% | 1,581 | 1540.4 | 1.03× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $8.48 12.11 coins | 6.0% | 388 | 385.1 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 18.8% | $2.99 4.27 coins | 39.5% | 7,185 | 7240.1 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.75 2.5 coins | 6.1% | 1,955 | 1925.6 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.53 2.18 coins | 2.1% | 738 | 770.2 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $0.84 1.2 coins | 11.2% | 7,298 | 7317.1 | 1.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-minimal-wear) | 50.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.7% | 19,293 | 19255.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-scale) [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-minimal-wear) [BARDA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BARDA) $1.57 2.24 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.57 2.24 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 1.91x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.57 2.24 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 1.91x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.57 2.24 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) [M1koGooD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/M1koGooD) $1.57 2.24 coins $0.84 1.2 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.57 2.24 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.57 2.24 coins $0.84 1.2 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.57 2.24 coins $11.26 16.08 coins 7.18x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.57 2.24 coins $0.84 1.2 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) [CARRITOS MAISTER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/CARRITOS%20MAISTER) $1.57 2.24 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.57 | 90.82% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.58 | 91.01% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.60 | 90.88% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Legendary 0.2% classified 22.8% mil spec 22.0% restricted 5.0% consumer 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.82 on average: an expected loss of $9.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt