---
title: "The Shock case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "The Shock ($131.17) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.95% over 231 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Shock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Shock

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock?window=all)

Price · $131.17 · 187 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $119.25 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.95% · 231 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 95.12% ±19.11 146 openings

30 days · 88.95% ±15.17 231 openings

since tracking started · 88.95% ±15.17 231 openings

-0.5% 71.8% 144.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock?window=24h) | 8 | 61.12% ±82.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock?window=7d) | 146 | 95.12% ±19.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock) | 231 | 88.95% ±15.2 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-shock?window=all) | 231 | 88.95% ±15.2 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 231 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $999 1,427 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $745 1,064 coins | 15.6% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $391 558 coins | 9.8% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.30× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $346 494 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $306 437 coins | 18.0% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $239 341 coins | 16.0% | 19 | 18.5 | 1.03× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $155 221 coins | 2.6% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 12.0% | $63.80 91.14 coins | 6.4% | 30 | 27.7 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $47.66 68.09 coins | 6.0% | 27 | 34.6 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 12.0% | $47.06 67.23 coins | 4.7% | 27 | 27.7 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 36.5% | $40.21 57.44 coins | 12.3% | 88 | 84.3 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) [Quack69x](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Quack69x) $133 190 coins $745 1,064 coins 5.59x 2026-11-08 16:07 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) Hidden $133 190 coins $732 1,046 coins 5.50x 2026-11-06 22:45 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) Hidden $133 190 coins $732 1,046 coins 5.50x 2026-11-06 14:57 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) Hidden $133 190 coins $732 1,046 coins 5.50x 2026-11-05 06:26 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) Hidden $133 190 coins $732 1,046 coins 5.50x 2026-11-03 14:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-shock)

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $131 187 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) [Tyrone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tyrone) $131 187 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $131 187 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $131 187 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-well-worn) Hidden $131 187 coins $306 437 coins 2.33x 2026-11-10 21:45 UTC

[AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) Hidden $131 187 coins $63.80 91.14 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 20:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $131 187 coins $47.06 67.23 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC

[AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) Hidden $131 187 coins $63.80 91.14 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $131 187 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.31x 2026-11-10 10:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $131 187 coins $239 341 coins 1.82x 2026-11-10 08:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $131 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $132 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $133 | 90.91% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 55.0% extraordinary 4.0% restricted 7.0% classified 32.0% rare 2.0% best hit $745 (5.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt