---
title: "The Swamp case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "The Swamp ($22.59) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 111.78% over 482 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Swamp](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Swamp

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp?window=all)

Price · $22.59 · 32.27 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $20.53 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 111.78% · 482 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 53 openings · below min

7 days · 115.10% ±16.84 436 openings

30 days · 111.78% ±16.03 482 openings

since tracking started · 111.78% ±16.03 482 openings

37.5% 86.0% 134.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.76% – 127.81%, 482 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp?window=24h) | 53 | 85.98% ±47.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp?window=7d) | 436 | 115.10% ±16.8 | +2.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp) | 482 | 111.78% ±16.0 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-swamp?window=all) | 482 | 111.78% ±16.0 | +2.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 482 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,229 1,755 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,033 1,475 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $95.20 136 coins | 7.0% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $81.20 116 coins | 5.5% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $78.40 112 coins | 11.5% | 19 | 14.5 | 1.31× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 16.9% | 36 | 38.6 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) | 10.0% | $24.85 35.5 coins | 12.1% | 55 | 48.2 | 1.14× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $23.07 32.95 coins | 6.7% | 27 | 28.9 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 10.0% | $17.88 25.55 coins | 8.7% | 51 | 48.2 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $14.01 20.01 coins | 10.2% | 71 | 72.3 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $12.05 17.21 coins | 8.8% | 76 | 72.3 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 10.0% | $5.89 8.41 coins | 2.9% | 47 | 48.2 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $4.31 6.16 coins | 4.2% | 83 | 96.4 | 0.86× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [ludopoker08](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ludopoker08) $22.81 32.58 coins $1,215 1,735 coins 53.25x 2026-11-06 21:32 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.81 32.58 coins $1,116 1,594 coins 48.93x 2026-11-06 20:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-swamp)

[AWP | Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) [BRÄTT \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BR%C3%84TT%20%3C3) $22.59 32.27 coins $5.89 8.41 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.59 32.27 coins $14.01 20.01 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $22.59 32.27 coins $95.20 136 coins 4.21x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $22.59 32.27 coins $12.05 17.21 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Fleet Flock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) Hidden $22.59 32.27 coins $24.85 35.5 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.59 32.27 coins $12.05 17.21 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) Hidden $22.59 32.27 coins $17.88 25.55 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-battle-scarred) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $22.59 32.27 coins $14.01 20.01 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[Nova | Walnut (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-minimal-wear) [3GO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/3GO) $22.59 32.27 coins $4.31 6.16 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 09:10 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $22.59 32.27 coins $12.05 17.21 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 09:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.59 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.62 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.81 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.6% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 1.4% classified 36.0% mil spec 6.0% restricted 25.0% rare 10.0% consumer 20.0% best hit $1,215 (53.25x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt