---
title: "The Trap case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "The Trap ($56.06) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 14 items with odds, observed 113.23% over 37 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Trap](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Trap

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap?window=all)

Price · $56.06 · 80.08 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $50.96 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 113.23% · 37 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 31 openings · below min

30 days · 37 openings · below min

since tracking started · 37 openings · below min

75.0% 145.5% 216.0%

**Small sample.** 37 openings and 7.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap?window=24h) | 11 | 146.17% ±69.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap?window=7d) | 31 | 123.62% ±41.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap) | 37 | 113.23% ±37.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-trap?window=all) | 37 | 113.23% ±37.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,932 2,760 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $562 803 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $557 795 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $282 403 coins | 16.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.80× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $105 150 coins | 6.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $94.50 135 coins | 9.3% | 5 | 1.9 | 2.70× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 10.0% | $90.30 129 coins | 17.7% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $83.30 119 coins | 24.5% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $32.73 46.75 coins | 6.4% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 10.8% | $30.86 44.08 coins | 6.6% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 15.0% | $24.23 34.62 coins | 7.1% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $13.01 18.59 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $2.16 3.09 coins | 0.8% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.90× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-trap)

[P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $282 403 coins 5.03x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $94.50 135 coins 1.69x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $83.30 119 coins 1.49x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $56.06 80.08 coins $105 150 coins 1.87x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $32.73 46.75 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC

[P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $90.30 129 coins 1.61x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC

[P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $90.30 129 coins 1.61x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.06 80.08 coins $94.50 135 coins 1.69x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $56.06 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $56.61 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.22 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% covert 18.1% mil spec 13.0% classified 15.0% restricted 53.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt