--- title: "The Volcano case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Volcano ($100.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.58% over 664 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano rendered: 2026-11-11T20:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Volcano](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Volcano A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano?window=all) Price · $100.92 · 144 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $91.75 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.58% · 664 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 85.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.65% ±16.20 104 openings 7 days · 92.15% ±6.91 566 openings 30 days · 90.58% ±6.37 664 openings since tracking started · 90.58% ±6.37 664 openings 70.0% 86.8% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano?window=24h) | 104 | 86.65% ±16.2 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano?window=7d) | 566 | 92.15% ±6.91 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano) | 664 | 90.58% ±6.37 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-volcano?window=all) | 664 | 90.58% ±6.37 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 664 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,229 1,755 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $532 760 coins | 2.9% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $334 477 coins | 2.2% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.76× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $207 296 coins | 18.1% | 48 | 53.1 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $122 175 coins | 5.3% | 29 | 26.6 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $95.20 136 coins | 10.4% | 65 | 66.4 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 61.6% | $81.20 116 coins | 54.5% | 424 | 409.0 | 1.04× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 15.0% | $15.88 22.69 coins | 2.6% | 87 | 99.6 | 0.87× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $101 144 coins $1,215 1,735 coins 12.03x 2026-11-08 01:12 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $101 144 coins $1,215 1,735 coins 12.03x 2026-11-03 18:58 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [Rorrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rorrin) $101 144 coins $1,215 1,735 coins 12.03x 2026-11-03 18:58 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $101 144 coins $540 771 coins 5.35x 2026-11-07 00:51 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $101 144 coins $532 760 coins 5.27x 2026-11-09 05:57 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $101 144 coins $532 760 coins 5.27x 2026-11-08 23:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-volcano) [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $101 144 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $101 144 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) [Black Jesus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Black%20Jesus) $101 144 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $101 144 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $101 144 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $101 144 coins $122 175 coins 1.21x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $101 144 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $101 144 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $101 144 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $101 144 coins $122 175 coins 1.21x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 84.4% mil spec 15.6% best hit $1,215 (12.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt