--- title: "The Wall case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Wall ($16.38) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 18 items with odds, observed 81.35% over 748 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [The Wall](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · The Wall A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall?window=all) Price · $16.38 · 23.4 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $14.89 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.35% · 748 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89 openings · below min 7 days · 81.58% ±11.11 601 openings 30 days · 81.35% ±9.96 748 openings since tracking started · 81.35% ±9.96 748 openings 33.5% 63.5% 93.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall?window=24h) | 89 | 63.44% ±29.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall?window=7d) | 601 | 81.58% ±11.1 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall) | 748 | 81.35% ±9.96 | −1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/the-wall?window=all) | 748 | 81.35% ±9.96 | −1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 752 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $185 264 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $118 169 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $113 161 coins | 12.9% | 11 | 12.8 | 0.86× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $109 156 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $83.30 119 coins | 2.8% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $70.70 101 coins | 6.2% | 12 | 9.8 | 1.23× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $63.09 90.13 coins | 14.8% | 19 | 26.3 | 0.72× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $49.42 70.6 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $49.06 70.09 coins | 9.2% | 16 | 21.1 | 0.76× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $39.71 56.73 coins | 12.0% | 33 | 33.8 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $38.40 54.86 coins | 2.1% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.50× | | [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $16.16 23.08 coins | 6.5% | 37 | 45.1 | 0.82× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 12.0% | $15.07 21.53 coins | 12.1% | 78 | 90.2 | 0.86× | | [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $8.62 12.31 coins | 4.5% | 54 | 58.7 | 0.92× | | [MAC-10 \| Commuter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-well-worn) | 14.0% | $5.01 7.15 coins | 4.7% | 100 | 105.3 | 0.95× | | [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.11 4.45 coins | 3.1% | 128 | 112.8 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $3.09 4.42 coins | 2.9% | 122 | 105.3 | 1.16× | | [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 15.4% | $1.30 1.86 coins | 1.3% | 126 | 115.8 | 1.09× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=the-wall) [M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.38 23.4 coins $3.09 4.42 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [MAC-10 | Commuter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-well-worn) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $16.38 23.4 coins $5.01 7.15 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) Hidden $16.38 23.4 coins $15.07 21.53 coins 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.38 23.4 coins $1.30 1.86 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $16.38 23.4 coins $3.11 4.45 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $16.38 23.4 coins $1.30 1.86 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Commuter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-well-worn) Hidden $16.38 23.4 coins $5.01 7.15 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.38 23.4 coins $1.30 1.86 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $16.38 23.4 coins $3.11 4.45 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $16.38 23.4 coins $3.11 4.45 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 04:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $16.38 | 90.89% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $16.56 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.55 | 90.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.47 | 90.92% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $16.39 | 90.90% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $16.39 | 90.91% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $16.40 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.42 | 90.92% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.1% classified 19.6% covert 2.5% extraordinary 0.1% industrial 15.3% consumer 6.0% restricted 27.4% mil spec 29.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt