--- title: "Thin Ice case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Thin Ice ($343.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 93.30% over 67 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Thin Ice](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Thin Ice A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice?window=all) Price · $343.08 · 490 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $311.89 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.30% · 67 openings, odds method Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 97.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 67 openings · below min 30 days · 67 openings · below min since tracking started · 67 openings · below min 68.0% 89.0% 110.0% **Small sample.** 67 openings and 65.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice?window=24h) | 8 | 89.01% ±20.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice?window=7d) | 67 | 93.30% ±7.17 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice) | 67 | 93.30% ±7.17 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thin-ice?window=all) | 67 | 93.30% ±7.17 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,545 2,207 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $1,325 1,893 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $999 1,427 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $899 1,285 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $751 1,073 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $429 613 coins | 4.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $385 550 coins | 2.5% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.24× | | [Patch \| Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) | 90.0% | $294 420 coins | 84.8% | 59 | 60.3 | 0.98× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $264 377 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $345 493 coins $906 1,294 coins 2.62x 2026-11-04 21:28 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [YT/AugustGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/YT%2FAugustGambles) $345 493 coins $906 1,294 coins 2.62x 2026-11-03 09:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $343 490 coins $899 1,285 coins 2.62x 2026-11-09 04:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=thin-ice) [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) [BlakeTheBumm](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BlakeTheBumm) $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 08:36 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 20:44 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 20:16 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 19:11 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $343 490 coins $385 550 coins 1.12x 2026-11-10 16:57 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 02:22 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $343 490 coins $294 420 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 00:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $343 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $345 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.0% exotic 90.0% extraordinary 3.0% best hit $906 (2.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt