---
title: "Thunder case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Thunder ($5.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 19 items with odds, observed 89.05% over 32.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Thunder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Thunder

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder?window=all)

Price · $5.87 · 8.39 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $5.34 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.05% · 32.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.73% ±4.51 5,641 openings

7 days · 89.23% ±1.91 31.1K openings

30 days · 89.05% ±1.87 32.2K openings

since tracking started · 89.05% ±1.87 32.2K openings

83.5% 88.8% 94.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.17% – 90.92%, 32,228 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder?window=24h) | 5,641 | 88.73% ±4.51 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder?window=7d) | 31.1K | 89.23% ±1.91 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder) | 32.2K | 89.05% ±1.87 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/thunder?window=all) | 32.2K | 89.05% ±1.87 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100,000 | $706 1,009 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $584 834 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $472 675 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [Sticker \| olofmeister (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-olofmeister-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 12,500 | $298 425 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $237 339 coins | 1.6% | 6 | 11.6 | 0.52× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $108 154 coins | 1.5% | 19 | 24.2 | 0.79× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $44.78 63.97 coins | 1.3% | 49 | 48.4 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| olofmeister (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-olofmeister-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 143 | $43.04 61.48 coins | 5.6% | 226 | 225.6 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $29.74 42.49 coins | 5.0% | 282 | 290.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $21.74 31.06 coins | 6.1% | 473 | 483.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $14.00 20 coins | 3.9% | 468 | 483.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $12.50 17.85 coins | 4.0% | 760 | 554.4 | 1.37× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $12.17 17.38 coins | 6.6% | 728 | 934.8 | 0.78× |
| [Sticker \| Spiidi (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spiidi-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 29 | $10.76 15.37 coins | 7.1% | 1,101 | 1128.2 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $9.95 14.22 coins | 11.2% | 1,836 | 1934.0 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| jks \| Boston 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jks-boston-2018) | 14.0% | $7.04 10.06 coins | 18.5% | 4,477 | 4512.8 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $4.72 6.74 coins | 13.2% | 4,945 | 4835.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Bolt Strike (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-strike-foil) | 25.5% | $1.36 1.94 coins | 6.5% | 8,255 | 8219.7 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 26.5% | $1.27 1.82 coins | 6.3% | 8,603 | 8542.0 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-factory-new) Hidden $5.89 8.42 coins $584 834 coins 99.05x 2026-11-08 21:57 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-factory-new) Hidden $5.94 8.48 coins $582 832 coins 98.11x 2026-11-05 18:22 UTC

[Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $472 675 coins 80.45x 2026-11-09 12:34 UTC

[Sticker | olofmeister (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-olofmeister-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $298 425 coins 50.66x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC

[Sticker | olofmeister (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-olofmeister-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $5.89 8.42 coins $298 425 coins 50.48x 2026-11-08 22:59 UTC

[Sticker | olofmeister (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-olofmeister-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $5.94 8.48 coins $298 425 coins 50.12x 2026-11-08 15:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=thunder)

[Sticker | Spiidi (Foil) | Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spiidi-foil-cologne-2015) [invisibility](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/invisibility) $5.87 8.39 coins $10.76 15.37 coins 1.83x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-well-worn) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $9.95 14.22 coins 1.69x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $1.27 1.82 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) [invisibility](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/invisibility) $5.87 8.39 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Sticker | Bolt Strike (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-strike-foil) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $1.27 1.82 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $108 154 coins 18.36x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Sticker | jks | Boston 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jks-boston-2018) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $7.04 10.06 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) [invisibility](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/invisibility) $5.87 8.39 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.87 8.39 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.87 | 90.95% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.94 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.94 | 90.91% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% classified 4.5% extraordinary 0.0% epic 0.0% covert 1.0% exotic 4.2% rare 1.5% restricted 1.7% industrial 6.0% high 14.0% uncommon 15.0% #d32ce6 25.5% Mythical 26.5% best hit $584 (99.05x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt