---
title: "Timebomb case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Timebomb ($145.73) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 98.51% over 20 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Timebomb](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Timebomb

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb?window=all)

Price · $145.73 · 208 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $132.48 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.51% · 20 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 14 openings · below min

30 days · 20 openings · below min

since tracking started · 20 openings · below min

-0.5% 86.5% 173.5%

**Small sample.** 20 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb?window=24h) | 6 | 78.22% ±94.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb?window=7d) | 14 | 77.06% ±61.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb) | 20 | 98.51% ±51.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/timebomb?window=all) | 20 | 98.51% ±51.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,544 2,206 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $937 1,339 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $918 1,312 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $874 1,248 coins | 13.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $788 1,125 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $751 1,073 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $555 793 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $445 636 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $184 263 coins | 8.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $178 254 coins | 12.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 18.0% | $172 246 coins | 23.4% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $115 164 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $80.50 115 coins | 8.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $49.06 70.09 coins | 7.8% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 23.1% | $32.17 45.95 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $148 212 coins $874 1,248 coins 5.89x 2026-11-03 22:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=timebomb)

[★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $146 208 coins $178 254 coins 1.22x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) Hidden $146 208 coins $80.50 115 coins 0.55x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) Hidden $146 208 coins $172 246 coins 1.18x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) Hidden $146 208 coins $172 246 coins 1.18x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $146 208 coins $32.17 45.95 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $146 208 coins $49.06 70.09 coins 0.34x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) Hidden $148 212 coins $50.69 72.42 coins 0.34x 2026-11-07 14:09 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) [LokomotivHelvette](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LokomotivHelvette) $148 212 coins $172 246 coins 1.16x 2026-11-07 14:09 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $148 212 coins $31.04 44.34 coins 0.21x 2026-11-06 21:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) Hidden $148 212 coins $172 246 coins 1.16x 2026-11-06 21:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $146 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $146 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $148 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 75.0% extraordinary 4.0% classified 21.0% best hit $874 (5.89x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt