---
title: "Tinted case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tinted ($142.77) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 93.65% over 37 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Tinted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Tinted

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted?window=all)

Price · $142.77 · 204 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $129.79 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.65% · 37 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 7 openings · below min

30 days · 37 openings · below min

since tracking started · 37 openings · below min

-0.5% 100.3% 201.0%

**Small sample.** 37 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted?window=24h) | 3 | 72.17% ±128.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted?window=7d) | 7 | 64.46% ±83.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted) | 37 | 93.65% ±35.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tinted?window=all) | 37 | 93.65% ±35.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,146 1,637 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $963 1,376 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $557 795 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 250 | $533 761 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $503 718 coins | 38.7% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $428 611 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $403 576 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $232 332 coins | 7.2% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.38× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $179 255 coins | 8.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $165 235 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $141 202 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $76.30 109 coins | 7.1% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 15.0% | $65.32 93.31 coins | 7.5% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $15.06 21.52 coins | 1.7% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.26× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 22.3% | $10.75 15.35 coins | 1.8% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.09× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $141 201 coins $1,037 1,482 coins 7.37x 2026-11-04 19:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=tinted)

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $143 204 coins $65.32 93.31 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $143 204 coins $65.32 93.31 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $143 204 coins $179 255 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $141 201 coins $239 341 coins 1.69x 2026-11-05 13:08 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) Hidden $141 201 coins $14.97 21.39 coins 0.11x 2026-11-05 13:08 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) Hidden $141 201 coins $10.78 15.4 coins 0.08x 2026-11-05 13:08 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) [pizza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/pizza) $141 201 coins $65.68 93.83 coins 0.47x 2026-11-05 13:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $141 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.2% covert 53.5% epic 2.0% classified 44.3% best hit $1,037 (7.37x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt