---
title: "Toolkit case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Toolkit ($12.98) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 11 items with odds, observed 90.40% over 1,777 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Toolkit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Toolkit

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit?window=all)

Price · $12.98 · 18.54 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $11.80 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.40% · 1,777 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 107.07% ±25.23 309 openings

7 days · 93.20% ±11.37 1,569 openings

30 days · 90.40% ±10.69 1,777 openings

since tracking started · 90.40% ±10.69 1,777 openings

79.0% 106.0% 133.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit?window=24h) | 309 | 107.07% ±25.2 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit?window=7d) | 1,569 | 93.20% ±11.4 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit) | 1,777 | 90.40% ±10.7 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toolkit?window=all) | 1,777 | 90.40% ±10.7 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,777 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $745 1,064 coins | 6.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $227 325 coins | 5.8% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $93.80 134 coins | 8.0% | 20 | 17.8 | 1.13× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $57.81 82.58 coins | 2.4% | 12 | 8.9 | 1.35× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $41.38 59.11 coins | 8.8% | 43 | 44.4 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $33.52 47.88 coins | 22.7% | 126 | 142.2 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $17.09 24.41 coins | 5.8% | 54 | 71.1 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 20.0% | $11.14 15.91 coins | 18.9% | 326 | 355.4 | 0.92× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $9.44 13.48 coins | 9.6% | 247 | 213.2 | 1.16× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-well-worn) | 25.0% | $5.41 7.73 coins | 11.5% | 462 | 444.3 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 26.6% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 0.3% | 479 | 472.7 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $745 1,064 coins 57.39x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) Hidden $12.39 17.7 coins $745 1,064 coins 60.11x 2026-11-06 00:50 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=toolkit)

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $12.98 18.54 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $11.14 15.91 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $9.44 13.48 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-well-worn) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $41.38 59.11 coins 3.19x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $9.44 13.48 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-well-worn) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $5.41 7.73 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $17.09 24.41 coins 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $9.44 13.48 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-well-worn) Hidden $12.98 18.54 coins $41.38 59.11 coins 3.19x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $12.98 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $12.97 | 90.89% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $12.97 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $12.44 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $12.35 | 90.89% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $12.39 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.57 | 90.89% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 2.6% classified 41.3% covert 9.5% industrial 46.6% best hit $745 (57.39x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt