---
title: "Tornado case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tornado ($21.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 14 items with odds, observed 85.83% over 764 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Tornado](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Tornado

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado?window=all)

Price · $21.54 · 30.77 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $19.58 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.83% · 764 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 70 openings · below min

7 days · 84.38% ±13.84 664 openings

30 days · 85.83% ±12.89 764 openings

since tracking started · 85.83% ±12.89 764 openings

26.5% 70.0% 113.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado?window=24h) | 70 | 70.10% ±42.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado?window=7d) | 664 | 84.38% ±13.8 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado) | 764 | 85.83% ±12.9 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tornado?window=all) | 764 | 85.83% ±12.9 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 773 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $555 793 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $541 773 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $346 494 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $260 372 coins | 13.3% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.29× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $130 185 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $83.30 119 coins | 14.9% | 34 | 27.1 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $52.09 74.42 coins | 12.0% | 31 | 34.8 | 0.89× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $47.74 68.2 coins | 6.1% | 16 | 19.3 | 0.83× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 15.5% | 44 | 54.1 | 0.81× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $25.23 36.05 coins | 11.6% | 50 | 69.6 | 0.72× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 20.7% | $5.38 7.69 coins | 5.7% | 175 | 159.9 | 1.09× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-well-worn) | 18.0% | $5.22 7.45 coins | 4.8% | 142 | 139.1 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $4.10 5.86 coins | 3.1% | 126 | 115.9 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $3.65 5.21 coins | 3.4% | 143 | 139.1 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.49 32.13 coins $588 840 coins 26.14x 2026-11-04 11:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=tornado)

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-well-worn) Hidden $21.54 30.77 coins $5.22 7.45 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $21.54 30.77 coins $5.38 7.69 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $21.54 30.77 coins $5.38 7.69 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) [Red](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Red) $21.54 30.77 coins $5.38 7.69 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $21.54 30.77 coins $25.23 36.05 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC

[P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.54 30.77 coins $43.41 62.02 coins 2.02x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.54 30.77 coins $4.10 5.86 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 02:44 UTC

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) [Like Scoob, I'm Buff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Like%20Scoob%2C%20I'm%20Buff) $21.54 30.77 coins $5.38 7.69 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 02:44 UTC

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-well-worn) Hidden $21.54 30.77 coins $5.22 7.45 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 00:57 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.54 30.77 coins $4.10 5.86 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 00:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.54 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.29 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.49 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.3% extraordinary 0.5% classified 59.2% restricted 33.0% best hit $588 (26.14x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt