---
title: "Toss Up case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Toss Up ($230.17) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 113.08% over 28 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Toss Up](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Toss Up

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up?window=all)

Price · $230.17 · 329 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $209.25 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 113.08% · 28 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 22 openings · below min

30 days · 28 openings · below min

since tracking started · 28 openings · below min

80.5% 118.3% 156.0%

**Small sample.** 28 openings and 9.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up?window=7d) | 22 | 119.65% ±35.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up) | 28 | 113.08% ±31.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toss-up?window=all) | 28 | 113.08% ±31.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,424 2,034 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $1,212 1,732 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 40 | $665 950 coins | 7.9% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $507 724 coins | 12.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $497 710 coins | 8.3% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 15.5% | $280 400 coins | 20.7% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.15× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 22.5% | $279 399 coins | 30.0% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $225 321 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 10.0% | $51.29 73.27 coins | 2.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 10.0% | $41.38 59.11 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $27.74 39.63 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.60 30.86 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $235 336 coins $651 930 coins 2.77x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $235 336 coins $651 930 coins 2.77x 2026-11-05 19:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) Hidden $235 336 coins $507 724 coins 2.16x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) Hidden $235 336 coins $507 724 coins 2.16x 2026-11-05 19:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $235 336 coins $504 720 coins 2.14x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=toss-up)

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [stzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/stzy) $235 336 coins $288 412 coins 1.23x 2026-11-06 14:44 UTC

[AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) Hidden $235 336 coins $27.32 39.03 coins 0.12x 2026-11-06 14:44 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) [Mezzini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mezzini) $235 336 coins $231 330 coins 0.98x 2026-11-06 14:44 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $235 336 coins $231 330 coins 0.98x 2026-11-06 14:44 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $235 336 coins $292 417 coins 1.24x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC

[AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) Hidden $235 336 coins $27.32 39.03 coins 0.12x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $235 336 coins $504 720 coins 2.14x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $235 336 coins $292 417 coins 1.24x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $235 336 coins $288 412 coins 1.23x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $235 336 coins $292 417 coins 1.24x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $230 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $230 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $235 | 90.91% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 80.0% classified 15.0% restricted 5.0% best hit $651 (2.77x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt