--- title: "Toxic Touch case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Toxic Touch ($84.45) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 89.70% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Toxic Touch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Toxic Touch A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch?window=all) Price · $84.45 · 121 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $76.77 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.70% · 34 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min 42.0% 119.8% 197.5% **Small sample.** 34 openings and 7.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch?window=24h) | 14 | 123.03% ±73.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch?window=7d) | 26 | 101.58% ±53.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch) | 34 | 89.70% ±46.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxic-touch?window=all) | 34 | 89.70% ±46.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,706 9,580 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,025 5,750 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,921 2,745 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,567 2,239 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 33 | $402 574 coins | 15.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 10.0% | $194 277 coins | 25.3% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $140 200 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.96× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 10.0% | $113 162 coins | 14.8% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 20 | $105 150 coins | 6.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 10.0% | $78.40 112 coins | 10.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $41.85 59.78 coins | 5.9% | 9 | 3.7 | 2.44× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $40.98 58.55 coins | 8.0% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $9.28 13.26 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× | | [P90 \| Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $7.35 10.5 coins | 1.4% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=toxic-touch) [MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $84.45 121 coins $194 277 coins 2.30x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.45 121 coins $41.85 59.78 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.45 121 coins $40.98 58.55 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [P90 | Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.45 121 coins $7.35 10.5 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.45 121 coins $41.85 59.78 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $84.45 121 coins $194 277 coins 2.30x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.45 121 coins $40.98 58.55 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 03:20 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) Hidden $84.45 121 coins $78.40 112 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 03:20 UTC [MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $84.45 121 coins $194 277 coins 2.30x 2026-11-11 03:20 UTC [MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) [FaLLouT'z](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FaLLouT'z) $84.45 121 coins $194 277 coins 2.30x 2026-11-11 03:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $84.45 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $85.81 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $86.21 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 28.8% extraordinary 3.0% legendary 0.1% epic 0.1% restricted 38.0% classified 15.0% industrial 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt