--- title: "Toxin case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Toxin ($92.97) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 183.21% over 43 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Toxin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Toxin A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin?window=all) Price · $92.97 · 133 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $84.51 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 183.21% · 43 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 43 openings · below min since tracking started · 43 openings · below min -0.5% 116.3% 233.0% **Small sample.** 43 openings and 8.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin?window=7d) | 12 | 66.87% ±92.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin) | 43 | 183.21% ±49.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toxin?window=all) | 43 | 183.21% ±49.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 500 | $1,935 2,765 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $1,014 1,448 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $533 762 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| JW (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 50 | $484 692 coins | 11.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $475 678 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $274 392 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $255 364 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v4lde-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 29 | $124 177 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $108 154 coins | 11.5% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.55× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 40 | $103 147 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $97.30 139 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $81.20 116 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 11.9% | $67.53 96.47 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.39× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $58.86 84.09 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $42.88 61.26 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) | 16.0% | $27.60 39.43 coins | 5.2% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $26.52 37.88 coins | 4.4% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.50× | | [Patch \| Death From Below patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-death-from-below) | 12.0% | $11.35 16.21 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.39× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $1,963 2,805 coins 21.04x 2026-11-03 21:54 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $1,056 1,508 coins 11.31x 2026-11-03 21:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $535 764 coins 5.73x 2026-11-03 21:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $535 764 coins 5.73x 2026-11-03 21:53 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $535 764 coins 5.73x 2026-11-03 21:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=toxin) [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $108 154 coins 1.16x 2026-11-07 16:35 UTC [Sticker | Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $26.41 37.73 coins 0.28x 2026-11-07 16:35 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $26.59 37.98 coins 0.28x 2026-11-07 16:35 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $93.30 133 coins $26.59 37.98 coins 0.28x 2026-11-07 16:35 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $59.84 85.48 coins 0.64x 2026-11-05 15:39 UTC [Sticker | v4lde (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v4lde-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $125 179 coins 1.34x 2026-11-05 15:39 UTC [Sticker | Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $26.41 37.73 coins 0.28x 2026-11-05 15:39 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) [Edu-Bruh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Edu-Bruh) $93.30 133 coins $108 154 coins 1.16x 2026-11-05 15:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $26.59 37.98 coins 0.28x 2026-11-05 15:38 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-well-worn) Hidden $93.30 133 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.87x 2026-11-05 15:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $92.97 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $92.64 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $93.30 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 28.5% extraordinary 20.5% restricted 9.0% exotic 16.0% mil spec 14.0% remarkable 12.0% best hit $1,963 (21.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt