--- title: "Toy Soldier case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Toy Soldier ($7.41) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 20 items with odds, observed 85.23% over 3,329 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier rendered: 2026-11-11T19:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Toy Soldier](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Toy Soldier A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier?window=all) Price · $7.41 · 10.59 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $6.74 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.23% · 3,329 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.55% ±16.72 407 openings 7 days · 85.78% ±6.55 2,526 openings 30 days · 85.23% ±5.69 3,329 openings since tracking started · 85.23% ±5.69 3,329 openings 78.0% 95.5% 113.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.54% – 90.92%, 3,329 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier?window=24h) | 407 | 95.55% ±16.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier?window=7d) | 2,526 | 85.78% ±6.55 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier) | 3,329 | 85.23% ±5.69 | −2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toy-soldier?window=all) | 3,329 | 85.23% ±5.69 | −2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,335 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $113 161 coins | 1.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $82.60 118 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $78.40 112 coins | 9.3% | 21 | 26.7 | 0.79× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $68.93 98.47 coins | 3.1% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $59.89 85.56 coins | 1.8% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.35× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $56.55 80.78 coins | 4.2% | 13 | 16.7 | 0.78× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $49.99 71.42 coins | 3.0% | 8 | 13.3 | 0.60× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 3.8% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $36.81 52.59 coins | 8.2% | 38 | 50.0 | 0.76× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $35.62 50.88 coins | 2.9% | 19 | 18.0 | 1.06× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $30.23 43.18 coins | 6.7% | 51 | 50.0 | 1.02× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $28.72 41.03 coins | 6.4% | 45 | 50.0 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $19.03 27.19 coins | 8.5% | 91 | 100.0 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $14.76 21.09 coins | 8.8% | 138 | 133.4 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $8.68 12.4 coins | 13.5% | 338 | 350.2 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $7.71 11.02 coins | 12.0% | 374 | 350.2 | 1.07× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.56 7.95 coins | 3.3% | 144 | 133.4 | 1.08× | | [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.45 0.65 coins | 1.3% | 661 | 667.0 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.8% | 677 | 667.0 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.24 0.35 coins | 0.7% | 676 | 667.0 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=toy-soldier) [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) Hidden $7.41 10.59 coins $0.45 0.65 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) [sakalaka bum bum](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sakalaka%20bum%20bum) $7.41 10.59 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) Hidden $7.41 10.59 coins $36.81 52.59 coins 4.97x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.41 10.59 coins $7.71 11.02 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.41 10.59 coins $7.71 11.02 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.41 10.59 coins $7.71 11.02 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) Hidden $7.41 10.59 coins $0.45 0.65 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) [Konster22](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Konster22) $7.41 10.59 coins $0.45 0.65 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) Hidden $7.41 10.59 coins $0.45 0.65 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) Hidden $7.41 10.59 coins $0.45 0.65 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $7.41 | 90.94% | 20 | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.42 | 90.87% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.54 | 90.93% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.63 | 90.92% | 20 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.61 | 90.94% | 20 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $7.55 | 90.91% | 20 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.55 | 90.88% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.49 | 90.92% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 16.8% classified 5.2% industrial 30.9% Mythical 1.5% mil spec 24.0% Uncommon 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt