--- title: "Toybox case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Toybox ($124.12) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 99.67% over 178 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox rendered: 2026-11-11T15:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Toybox](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Toybox A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox?window=all) Price · $124.12 · 177 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $112.83 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.67% · 178 openings, odds method Variance · 12.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 103.19% ±53.37 163 openings 30 days · 99.67% ±51.07 178 openings since tracking started · 99.67% ±51.07 178 openings 48.0% 102.5% 157.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox?window=7d) | 163 | 103.19% ±53.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox) | 178 | 99.67% ±51.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/toybox?window=all) | 178 | 99.67% ±51.1 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 178 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-reason-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $98K 140,000 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $30.1K 42,950 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 14,286 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $8,880 12,685 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,057 11,510 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 11,111 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 12,500 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,426 3,465 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,222 | $2,230 3,185 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,890 2,700 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $374 534 coins | 1.3% | 4 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 26 | $274 392 coins | 9.2% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.59× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $268 383 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 12 | $267 382 coins | 20.1% | 22 | 15.1 | 1.45× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $241 344 coins | 14.9% | 14 | 12.5 | 1.12× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $237 338 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $225 321 coins | 10.0% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 12.5% | $153 219 coins | 17.0% | 21 | 22.3 | 0.94× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-well-worn) | 11.0% | $111 158 coins | 10.8% | 13 | 19.6 | 0.66× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 25.0% | $15.11 21.59 coins | 3.3% | 46 | 44.5 | 1.03× | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) | 25.0% | $3.12 4.46 coins | 0.7% | 41 | 44.5 | 0.92× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $124 178 coins $1,953 2,790 coins 15.70x 2026-11-06 17:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=toybox) [PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) Hidden $124 177 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $124 177 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $124 177 coins $153 219 coins 1.23x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $124 177 coins $267 382 coins 2.15x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) Hidden $124 177 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $124 177 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-well-worn) Hidden $124 177 coins $111 158 coins 0.89x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $124 177 coins $267 382 coins 2.15x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) Hidden $124 177 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $124 177 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 11.1% remarkable 0.0% covert 38.7% epic 0.0% rare 0.2% classified 25.0% restricted 25.0% best hit $1,953 (15.70x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt