--- title: "Trance case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Trance ($74.03) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 119.88% over 91 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance rendered: 2026-11-11T15:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Trance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Trance A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance?window=all) Price · $74.03 · 106 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $67.30 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 119.88% · 91 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 46 openings · below min 7 days · 91 openings · below min 30 days · 91 openings · below min since tracking started · 91 openings · below min 90.0% 119.0% 148.0% **Small sample.** 91 openings and 22.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance?window=24h) | 46 | 119.10% ±28.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance?window=7d) | 91 | 119.88% ±20.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance) | 91 | 119.88% ±20.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trance?window=all) | 91 | 119.88% ±20.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $506 723 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $436 623 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $410 586 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $356 508 coins | 5.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 40 | $291 415 coins | 10.8% | 7 | 2.3 | 3.08× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $141 201 coins | 8.4% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.65× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $109 156 coins | 19.5% | 14 | 10.9 | 1.28× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $98.70 141 coins | 13.2% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 20.0% | $83.30 119 coins | 24.8% | 14 | 18.2 | 0.77× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $26.75 38.22 coins | 9.9% | 19 | 22.8 | 0.84× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 25.6% | $6.27 8.96 coins | 2.4% | 20 | 23.3 | 0.86× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-factory-new) [Blair](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Blair) $74.03 106 coins $506 723 coins 6.84x 2026-11-11 05:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=trance) [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $74.03 106 coins $6.27 8.96 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $74.03 106 coins $98.70 141 coins 1.33x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $74.03 106 coins $26.75 38.22 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $74.03 106 coins $26.75 38.22 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $74.03 106 coins $6.27 8.96 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.03 106 coins $109 156 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $74.03 106 coins $83.30 119 coins 1.13x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.03 106 coins $109 156 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $74.03 106 coins $26.75 38.22 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) [Blair](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Blair) $74.03 106 coins $109 156 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $74.03 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $74.12 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $74.12 | 90.91% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $77.61 | 90.91% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $77.52 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $77.54 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% legendary 0.5% covert 36.8% classified 37.6% restricted 25.0% best hit $506 (6.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt