--- title: "Tranquillity case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tranquillity ($31.23) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 90.21% over 357 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Tranquillity](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Tranquillity A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity?window=all) Price · $31.23 · 44.61 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $28.39 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.21% · 357 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 55 openings · below min 7 days · 92.50% ±13.71 333 openings 30 days · 90.21% ±13.25 357 openings since tracking started · 90.21% ±13.25 357 openings 44.5% 78.5% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity?window=24h) | 55 | 78.35% ±33.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity?window=7d) | 333 | 92.50% ±13.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity) | 357 | 90.21% ±13.2 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tranquillity?window=all) | 357 | 90.21% ±13.2 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 363 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $404 577 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $109 156 coins | 19.2% | 16 | 18.2 | 0.88× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $91.00 130 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× | | [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $91.00 130 coins | 9.6% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $49.99 71.42 coins | 14.1% | 28 | 29.0 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 15.0% | $48.33 69.05 coins | 25.5% | 56 | 54.4 | 1.03× | | [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 27.5% | $11.91 17.02 coins | 11.5% | 104 | 99.8 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) | 18.0% | $7.68 10.97 coins | 4.9% | 55 | 65.3 | 0.84× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 22.0% | $6.19 8.84 coins | 4.8% | 88 | 79.9 | 1.10× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=tranquillity) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) Hidden $31.23 44.61 coins $6.19 8.84 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) Hidden $31.23 44.61 coins $6.19 8.84 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $31.23 44.61 coins $49.99 71.42 coins 1.60x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [MP7 | Teal Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.23 44.61 coins $91.00 130 coins 2.91x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $31.23 44.61 coins $11.91 17.02 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) [🔸Regular🔸](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%94%B8Regular%F0%9F%94%B8) $31.23 44.61 coins $11.91 17.02 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) Hidden $31.23 44.61 coins $7.68 10.97 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) Hidden $31.23 44.61 coins $7.68 10.97 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) [🔸Regular🔸](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%94%B8Regular%F0%9F%94%B8) $31.23 44.61 coins $49.99 71.42 coins 1.60x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) Hidden $31.23 44.61 coins $6.19 8.84 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $31.23 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.72 | 90.92% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.25 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 28.0% classified 28.0% mil spec 3.0% industrial 26.0% covert 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt