--- title: "Translucent case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Translucent ($21.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.67% over 854 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Translucent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Translucent A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent?window=all) Price · $21.29 · 30.41 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $19.35 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.67% · 854 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.17% ±25.34 177 openings 7 days · 88.10% ±11.59 792 openings 30 days · 86.67% ±11.14 854 openings since tracking started · 86.67% ±11.14 854 openings 67.0% 93.0% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent?window=24h) | 177 | 93.17% ±25.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent?window=7d) | 792 | 88.10% ±11.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent) | 854 | 86.67% ±11.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/translucent?window=all) | 854 | 86.67% ±11.1 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 858 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $714 1,020 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $465 664 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $373 533 coins | 5.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.17× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $323 461 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $197 282 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $107 153 coins | 44.3% | 56 | 68.6 | 0.82× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $70.70 101 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $50.69 72.42 coins | 2.6% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.40× | | [Sticker \| crush (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crush-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 33 | $40.84 58.34 coins | 6.3% | 21 | 25.7 | 0.82× | | [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $36.88 52.69 coins | 7.6% | 44 | 34.3 | 1.28× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $18.03 25.75 coins | 5.6% | 62 | 51.5 | 1.20× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-well-worn) | 12.0% | $17.08 24.4 coins | 10.6% | 122 | 103.0 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $13.13 18.75 coins | 6.8% | 79 | 85.8 | 0.92× | | [MP7 \| Asterion (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $3.30 4.72 coins | 2.7% | 137 | 137.3 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) | 18.0% | $3.11 4.45 coins | 2.9% | 132 | 154.4 | 0.85× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 21.2% | $0.78 1.12 coins | 0.9% | 188 | 181.6 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=translucent) [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $0.78 1.12 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $0.78 1.12 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $3.11 4.45 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $13.13 18.75 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $18.03 25.75 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $21.29 30.41 coins $18.03 25.75 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP7 | Asterion (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $3.30 4.72 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $0.78 1.12 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $3.11 4.45 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-well-worn) Hidden $21.29 30.41 coins $17.08 24.4 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $21.29 | 90.90% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $21.31 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.31 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.53 | 90.90% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $22.53 | 90.91% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $22.53 | 90.90% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.55 | 90.92% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.2% classified 10.0% rare 0.3% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 11.0% remarkable 3.0% industrial 12.0% consumer 16.0% mil spec 39.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt