---
title: "Tree Hugger case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tree Hugger ($102.46) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 112.42% over 17 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Tree Hugger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Tree Hugger

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger?window=all)

Price · $102.46 · 146 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $93.14 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 112.42% · 17 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 17 openings · below min

30 days · 17 openings · below min

since tracking started · 17 openings · below min

51.0% 112.3% 173.5%

**Small sample.** 17 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger?window=7d) | 17 | 112.42% ±60.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger) | 17 | 112.42% ±60.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tree-hugger?window=all) | 17 | 112.42% ±60.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $888 1,269 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $754 1,077 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 286 | $523 747 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $493 704 coins | 14.8% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $387 553 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $356 508 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 59 | $217 310 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $142 203 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $123 176 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $123 176 coins | 10.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) | 12.0% | $90.30 129 coins | 11.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-2) | 14.0% | $64.16 91.65 coins | 9.6% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $50.47 72.1 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $44.70 63.86 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 15.0% | $26.08 37.25 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.39× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 15.4% | $23.59 33.7 coins | 3.9% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=tree-hugger)

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-2) Hidden $99.32 142 coins $64.83 92.62 coins 0.65x 2026-11-05 15:03 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.32 142 coins $42.90 61.29 coins 0.43x 2026-11-05 15:03 UTC

[P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $99.32 142 coins $394 563 coins 3.97x 2026-11-05 15:03 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $99.32 142 coins $24.05 34.36 coins 0.24x 2026-11-05 15:03 UTC

[AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) [Lange](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lange) $99.32 142 coins $90.30 129 coins 0.91x 2026-11-05 15:03 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.32 142 coins $42.90 61.29 coins 0.43x 2026-11-04 20:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) Hidden $99.32 142 coins $24.46 34.94 coins 0.25x 2026-11-04 20:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) Hidden $99.32 142 coins $24.46 34.94 coins 0.25x 2026-11-04 20:22 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Mk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mk) $99.32 142 coins $212 303 coins 2.14x 2026-11-04 20:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) Hidden $99.32 142 coins $24.46 34.94 coins 0.25x 2026-11-04 17:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $102 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $102 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.32 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 33.0% classified 16.8% restricted 50.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt